NHL best bets today (Flames will finally get hot)

We suffered several bad beats in the NHL last night. Our underdog bet on the Ducks lost in overtime, and my two player props both missed by the hook. Pain.

Fortunately, we did cash in on the Devils as underdogs in Colorado against the Avalanche. So, let’s try to ride that win into today’s slate.

I have four best bets for tonight’s action. If you want to hear me dive into them a little bit deeper, check out today’s episode of the Bacon Bets Podcast.

NHL best bets record season-to-date

• 189-167-4 (+7.88 units)

NHL best bets today

• Kraken -105 vs. Red Wings
• Flames -105 vs. Maple Leafs
• Wild/Canucks UNDER 6 (-110)
• Sharks -110 vs. Blues

Kraken -105 vs. Red Wings

The Red Wings have been solid lately when it comes to their record, but the underlying numbers tell me that we’re going to see some significant regression from them. Over their last 10 games, they’re 31st in CORSI% (which measures all types of shot attempts), 29th in expected goals percentage, and 29th in high-danger scoring chances percentage.

They’ve been carried by good goaltending, but Ville Husso came crashing back down to earth in his last game when he allowed six goals on 27 shots.

I’ll fade them and take the Kraken on the road tonight.

Flames -105 vs. Maple Leafs

I refuse to stop betting on the Calgary Flames. There is a statistic called “PDO” which measures a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage. Many people believe it is a representation of a “luck factor” that teams have.

The Flames rank dead last in the NHL in PDO this season, telling me they’ve drawn the short end of the stick more often than not. Over their last 10 games, they’re 1st in CORSI% and 2nd in expected goals percentage, but yet are 3-4-3 in that stretch, which is a perfect example of PDO in action.

I’ll continue to bet on the Flames, especially against the Maple Leafs who are on the second end of a back-to-back, after losing in Edmonton last night.

Wild/Canucks UNDER 6 (-110)

I will be betting on the UNDER in any game involving the Wild that has the total set at 6 for the foreseeable future. Over their last 10 games, they’re scoring just 1.82 goals per 60 minutes while allowing only 1.53. That’s an average combined score of 3.34 per 60 minutes of play over that stretch.

That’s an insane rate of defensive play.

With the total at six tonight, give me the UNDER.

Sharks -110 vs. Blues

The St. Louis Blues have been arguably the worst team in the NHL over their last 10 games. In 5-on-5 venue adjusted statistics, they have an expected goal differential of -1.43, the worst mark in the NHL.

Meanwhile, the Sharks have been playing some solid hockey over that stretch, ranking eighth in the NHL in that same stat.

With the Sharks at home, I’ll gladly back them tonight.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.