NHL best bets today (Penguins better than recent record indicates)

After a week of vacation, I’m back, baby!

With the NBA All-Star Break ongoing, we need the NHL now more than ever. Don’t fret, I have three picks for Monday’s slate that I’m ready to dive into. One of those picks is for a matinee matchup between the Ottawa Senators and Boston Bruins.

Let’s jump into them.

NHL best bets record season-to-date

• 175-148 (+14.22 units)

NHL best bets today

• Senators +250 vs. Bruins
• Penguins -130 vs. Islanders
• Jets/Rangers OVER 6 (+100)

Senators +250 vs. Bruins

Let’s take a shot on a big underdog in the afternoon today. I’ve bet against the Bruins to no avail several times this year, but I’m sticking to my process. Boston’s underlying numbers don’t hold up to its record. Over their last 10 games, they’re 19th in CORSI% and 22nd in expected goals for.

Eventually, those numbers are going to come back to haunt a team. Especially not that they face a hot Senators team that has a higher shooting percentage than Bruins over that stretch.

Should the Bruins be favored? Absolutely, but not by as much as they are.

I might be crazy, but I think there’s some value on the Sens.

Penguins -130 vs. Islanders

The Penguins are 4-4-2 in their last 10 games. but I’d argue they’re playing much better than their record indicates. Over that same stretch, they’re third in CORSI%, with only the Flames and Hurricanes ranking higher.

Where they have struggled has been on defense, but I don’t have many concerns with that tonight considering they’re facing one of the worst offensive teams in the NHL in the Islanders tonight.

I’ll take the Penguins to win at home in this one.

Jets/Rangers OVER 6 (+100)

It’s tough to bet on the OVER in a game involving Igor Shesterkin, but I think there’s enough there for me to lean towards the OVER. The Rangers have been red hot in the shooting department lately. Over their last 10 games, they lead the NHL in shooting percentage, finding the back of the net on 15.96% of their shots on goal. They’re also averaging 4.44 goals per game over that stretch.

The Jets haven’t been as hot from a shooting perspective, but they’re third in expected goals over the same time frame, so they’re creating the chances they need to score.

A hot shooting team taking on a team that’s created plenty of offensive chances. I’ll back plenty of goals in this one.

–

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.