NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (1/22)
We got off to a great start this weekend, going 3-0 on Saturday’s massive slate. And with the NFL taking center stage, Sunday’s NHL slate offers a fraction of yesterday’s games. We’ve got just five on today’s docket, including several featuring teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back.
Without further ado, here are my favorite plays for Sunday’s hockey slate.
Sunday’s Best NHL Bets
Here are two of my favorite bets for Sunday’s slate.
San Jose Sharks (+290) at Boston Bruins (-350) | Total 6
Who’s ready to get uncomfortable? The Sharks have been a team I can’t quit betting on this season. Why? Because the metrics suggest San Jose has driven play better at 5-on-5 than their 14-23-9 record would suggest. In fact, the Sharks are better or close to the Bruins in some key statistical categories over their last 10 games:
- Corsi For %: San Jose 50.96%, Boston 49.67%
- Shots For %: San Jose 50.58%, Boston 53.08%
- Expected Goals For %: San Jose 57.4%, Boston 53.16%
- Scoring Chances For %: San Jose 55.56%, Boston 51.34%
San Jose’s kryptonite has been between the pipes. The Sharks have the worst save percentage in the league, and both James Reimer and Kappo Kahkonen rank outside the top 75 among goaltenders in Expected Goals Saved Above Expectation.
The assumption is Reimer will start Sunday evening after Kahkonen got lit up by the Columbus Blue Jackets Saturday night. Reimer is the lesser of two evils and has stopped 71 of 77 shots in his last two outings.
I’m not crazy enough to take San Jose to win straight up in Boston, where the Bruins have lost just four times all season, including only once in regulation. But I see value in taking the Sharks on the spread at plus-money and praying for competent goaltending and an off night from Bruins netminder Linus Ullmark.
The pick: San Jose +1.5 goals (+124)
Los Angeles Kings (-230) at Chicago Blackhawks (+195) | Total 6
The Chicago Blackhawks are doing a mighty fine job of screwing up their tank for Conor Bedard. The Hawks have won six out of their last seven and secured their third straight win Saturday night in St. Louis.
The Los Angeles Kings have dropped three in a row as they try to hold onto their playoff position leading up to the All-Star Break. Los Angeles fell to the Nashville Predators Saturday night despite outshooting the Preds, 34-28.
Now, Los Angeles will look to snap their skid against the streaking Hawks at the United Center. And the advanced metrics suggest this could be the spot for the Kings to get right.
Los Angeles owns a 52.6 Corsi For Percentage over its last 10 games, suggesting that the team has controlled possession at 5-on-5 over its last 10 contests. Meanwhile, Chicago has just a 43.83 Corsi For Percentage.
More stats suggest the Blackhawks have been more fortunate than good, and the opposite is true for the Kings. Chicago has a GF percentage of 47.83% over its last 10 games but an xGF percentage of just 40.06%. On the flip side, L.A. has a GF of just 41.46%, despite an xGF of 52.88%.
So why are the Hawks scoring more than the metrics suggest they should while L.A. is struggling? Chicago has scored on 10.6% of its shots, compared to 6.9% for Los Angeles. Chicago’s goaltending has also been better over this recent stretch, posting a 91.8 save percentage.
The assumption is we’ll see Phoenix Copley vs. Petr Mrazek in net after Jonathan Quick and Jaxson Stauber started for each team Saturday night. And while both goaltenders are below average, Mrazek has been one of the worst goalies in the NHL to this point.
All of the signs point to Los Angeles getting right in this spot. But instead of laying more than $2 on the full game moneyline, we’re instead going to take the Kings to prevail in 60 minutes. I also don’t mind a play on Los Angeles -1.5.
The pick:Los Angeles to win in regulation (-145)
