NHL playoff futures picks: Penguins, Panthers playoff odds
The NHL playoff race in the Eastern Conference is turning into a bit of a mess. At the turn of the New Year, it looked as if the hunt for the wild card would be five teams deep with the Capitals, Penguins, Islanders, Sabres and Panthers all vying for two spots.
And at that time it seemed like a true slugfest. The Caps finished 2022 on an 11-1-1 stretch, the Sabres were in the middle of a 10-2-1 stretch, the Penguins were not far removed from a 15-3-3 ripper, the Isles were hanging around thanks to a strong start and nobody wanted to count out the Panthers after their Presidents’ Trophy campaign in 2021-22.
Two weeks later, the narrative around the playoff race has completely changed, as the Penguins, Capitals, Islanders and Sabres have all fallen off the pace, while the Panthers are slowly trudging forward, but have yet to capture any sort of consistency.
Entering play on Thursday, the final two spots in the playoffs belonged to the Capitals (54 points in 47 games played) and Penguins (51 in 44) with the Islanders (50 in 46), Panthers (47 in 46) and Sabres (45 in 43) on the outside looking in. If any one of these teams is able to put together a long hot streak, it will vault into the driver’s seat.
Betting on the NHL?
And with the race setting up to be this funky, there’s bound to be some betting value on the board. Let’s take a look:
Penguins to miss the playoffs (+260, FanDuel)
Not only are the Penguins in the midst of a 4-7-3 stretch, but their five-on-five play has completely tanked over the last month, as well, as they rank 22nd in expected goals rate and 24th in high-danger scoring chance rate.
What’s most concerning is that it’s Pittsburgh’s usually solid defense that’s the problem. The Pens are 25th in the league in expected goals allowed and 29th in high-danger chances conceded at five-on-five over this 14-game malaise.
Pittsburgh still has elite players, but with the age profile of its core we could see the Pens struggle to recapture their form from earlier in the season when Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang were all fresh. Pittsburgh is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2005-06 and these odds don’t reflect that.
Panthers to make the playoffs (+166, FanDuel)
Florida is still in the hunt thanks to the ineptitude of the teams above it more than anything else. Sitting at 18-19-4 through their first 41 games, the Cats should have been buried so deep in the standings that they didn’t have a hope in hell of catching up to the pack. Well, the Penguins, Capitals and Islanders have let Florida off the mat and the Cats are now a real threat to steal a playoff spot.
Florida’s five-on-five numbers have been strong all season, but the Cats have never really put everything together at the same time this season. The goaltending has been inconsistent, the defensive depth has been an issue at times and there have been injuries to key players.
But now the Panthers are healthy and they’re playing some of their best hockey of the season at the perfect time. While the rest of the contenders are searching for answers, Florida seems to have found some.
