NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Today’s NHL Predictions feature an Eastern Conference matchup. The Tampa Bay Lightning (6-4-4) are coming off an abysmal loss to the Chicago Blackhawks. Tampa Bay came out with a solid start to the first period with goals from Anthony Cirelli and Nikita Kucherov. Then, the 2023 first-overall selection took over the game. Connor Bedard recorded two goals and four points. Bedard is the third youngest player to score four or more points in NHL history.
On the other side of this matchup, the Carolina Hurricanes (8-5 (update after Friday night game)) look to get their season on track in the right direction. The Hurricanes entered the season with high expectations. Many picked them for not only the Eastern Conference champions but also the Stanley Cup champions. Jesperi Kotkaniemi leads the offensive charge for Carolina with 12 points in 13 games to start the 2024 season. In addition, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas, and Sebastian Aho have all produced well.
For Tampa Bay, Kucherov ranks second in league points with 23 on the season. Furthermore, Brandon Hagel has 15 points in 14 games. All 15 of his points are primary. Tampa Bay lost its first home game in regulation on Thursday night (4-1-1). Here are the keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay vs Carolina
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Let Carolina Control The Outside
Carolina is not a creative team when it comes to offensive chance generation. The Hurricanes shovel pucks on the net from the perimeter and pile up the shot count. All their forwards struggle to generate chances in the middle of the ice. This season, Carolina ranks 28th in high-danger goals per hour at 5v5 (0.9). While Tampa Bay struggles in the defensive zone, Carolina can never find the high percentage plays. The Hurricanes do not match up well against the Lightning because of their poor shot selection and finishing talent.
From this Carolina 5v5 offence Shot Map from HockeyViz, we can conclude that the team struggles to generate scoring chances in the middle of the ice. The blue regions identify a team that generates less than the league average rate of shots, and the red regions for than the league average.
Capitalize On The Power Play
Special teams are going to make a difference in this matchup. The Hurricanes have committed the fifth most penalties this season (65). In addition, their penalty kill ranks 18th in the NHL (76%). Carolina is a force on defence at 5v5 and is difficult to score on. The Hurricanes rank second in expected goals against per hour (2.22 xGA/60). They also rank second in scoring chances against per hour (24.21 SCA/60). Carolina plays a structured defensive system that does not allow opponents anything on offence.
In most of their matchups, the Hurricanes control the pace of play and dominate in every on-ice statistic. If the Lightning can draw a couple of penalties over the course of the game, they will be able to flip the pressure onto the Hurricanes. The Tampa Bay power play ranks third in the NHL to start the 2024 season (33.3%). With Carolina playing aggressively down a man, the Lightning must rely on quick puck movement to draw the penalty kill out of place. Tampa Bay will likely need at least one power-play goal to walk away with two points.
Clean Breakouts Against a Heavy Forecheck
There is no secret around the league that Carolina is the best forechecking team. The Hurricanes constantly dump the puck and send forwards flying into the zone to retrieve it. A big issue against the Blackhawks Thursday night was the inability to control the puck on the breakout. The defence held onto the puck too long, and once the Chicago forwards put some pressure on them, Tampa Bay turned the puck over.
Jon Cooper can approach this issue in one of two ways. First, have the forwards stretch the ice. Then, the defencemen provide high aerial chips into the neutral zone to create foot races. Cirelli and Hagel are puck hounds and will not have an issue winning races. On the other hand, the Lightning can rely on their forwards coming lower in the zone. If the Lightning can get Brayden Point to swing deep in the zone and collect the puck with a burst of speed up the ice, Carolina will have to back off their heavy forecheck. Tampa Bay needs to move up the ice as a unit collectively to start finding more success on the rush. Whenever the Lightning have a defenceman jump in the play late, they create cross-seam passing lanes that result in fabulous goals.
Prediction Time
This Eastern Conference battle consists of two contending teams looking to climb in the standings after a mediocre start. The Lightning and Hurricanes both rank second in their respective divisions. The Tampa Bay core continues to produce as projected, and Carolina is finally seeing their young players break out in Kotkaniemi and Jarvis. The Lightning won the previous matchup (3-0) against the Hurricanes on October 24th. We see the same result occurring once again on November 11th.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins 3-2
Main Photo: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
