NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. St. Louis Blues
Today’s NHL Predictions feature a cross-conference matchup. The Tampa Bay Lightning (6-5-4) are struggling to find their game after a dreadful loss Saturday Night against the Carolina Hurricanes. The offence looked dead without Nikita Kucherov. Additionally, the Lightning got shut out for the first time this year. Furthermore, the power play looked out of sync without Kucherov on the ice.
On the other side of this matchup, the St. Louis Blues (7-5-1) look to continue their hot streak after a slow start. St. Louis has won four of their last five games, led by their new captain, Brayden Schenn. Superb playmaker Robert Thomas drives the offence. He leads the team with 15 points in 13 games. In addition, Jordan Kyrou possesses a lethal shot and immense speed. Do not forget about power forward Pavel Buchnevich; he is one of the most dominant two-way players in the game.
Unfortunately for the Lightning, Kucherov missed the previous game due to illness. Tampa Bay will play the first of two consecutive games on the road. The club has a record of 2-3-2 away from home ice this season. Here are the keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay vs St. Louis
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Expose The Defensive Flaws of St. Louis
Entering the contest, St. Louis presents some of the worst defensive zone play at 5v5. The Blues rank 28th in expected goals against per hour (2.89 xGA) at 5v5. On the other hand, Tampa Bay ranks 26th in expected goals against per hour (2.87 xGA) at 5v5. This game has the potential to be an absolute shootout. Furthermore, the Blues allow 30.53 scoring chances per 60, which ranks 27th in the league. The main issue for the Blues is covering the slot and front of the net. St. Louis allows 14.02 high-danger chances against per hour, which ranks 30th amongst all teams at 5v5.
We can connect the St. Louis scoring chance and expected goals-against rates with their defensive zone shot map from Hockeyviz. The blue regions identify a team that generates less than the league average rate of shots, and the red regions for than the league average.
The Blues allow many chances in the faceoff circles, a spot where the Lightning have successfully created offence to start the season. If the Lightning can work their “2-3” press and throw in some high-danger plays through the “Royal Road,” they should have no issue scoring goals despite the stellar play of Jordan Binnington.
Hold Onto the Puck Up-Ice
A glaring issue in the game against Carolina on Saturday was all the intercepted stretch passes by Tampa Bay. The Hurricanes do a fabulous job of anticipating the options of the puck carrier before the play. For example, Carolina knew which lanes and areas to cover when the Lightning were looking to stretch the ice.
A solution to this problem is to have the defencemen skate the puck through the neutral zone instead of passing to the forwards immediately. This strategy would also limit the number of turnovers, the biggest issue of the Lightning to start the year. When trying to stretch the ice, the Lightning made costly mistakes that resulted in opportunities going the other way. Defenders like Mikhail Sergachev can skate the puck up ice and take the room available, which the Blues will give up.
Try Hagel and Cirelli Together
Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli stood out together in the game against Carolina. Both players are well-conditioned and are hounds on the puck. Hagel and Cirelli disrupted the Hurricanes to cause turnovers. Then, they translated those turnovers into scoring chances. The two forwards play a fast-paced game. Pairing them with a talented finisher like Steven Stamkos may help because they are not the most skilled players in the world. The Lightning could then have a first line with the dynamic duo of Brayden Point and Kucherov alongside Alex Barré-Boulet.
Prediction Time
This cross-conference battle consists of two teams in the middle of the pack. Tampa Bay has struggled as of late while the Blues are on a hot streak. This matchup will likely feature a lot of goals, considering the poor defensive play on both sides. In addition, there are offensive weapons in Tampa Bay and St. Louis to propel the scoring. If Kucherov returns from illness, the Lightning will bounce back and grab two points on the road.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins 6-4
Main Photo Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
