NHL Tank Daily: Ducks ‘win’ race to the bottom, earn best odds to land Connor Bedard

It was a wild second-to-last day at the bottom of the NHL standings, but we have a winner in the first leg of the Connor Bedard derby.

The Anaheim Ducks, who have been the worst team in the league by a number of metrics for much of the season, settled into 32nd place with a home loss against the rival Los Angeles Kings in game No. 82. Anaheim won 13 games in regulation and finished with a negative-129 goal differential, which is the worst since the expansion Atlanta Thrashers finished at -143 in 1999-2000.

For their misery, the Ducks are the only team locked into a top-three selection in the 2023 NHL Draft after some Thursday night chaos. Anaheim will have a 25.5 percent chance to land the first pick and add Bedard to one of the top collections of young talent in the NHL.

The Columbus Blue Jackets began the day in 32nd but rallied to force overtime and win against the Pittsburgh Penguins. When the Chicago Blackhawks fell behind early against the Philadelphia Flyers, and the Ducks scored first against Los Angeles, there was a fleeting period of the night where the Hawks were in 32nd based on the live results.

It was a fitting ending to this nosedive to the bottom, with all the teams jostling for position. Anaheim lost its final 13 games (0-11-2). Chicago lost 12 of 14 (2-11-1). San Jose finished the season with losses in 20 of 24 (4-15-5). Columbus had lost eight of nine (1-6-2) before Thursday night.

There is still more potential shuffling to come. Columbus has a makeup game to play Friday at home against Buffalo. The Blue Jackets could finish anywhere from 29th to 31st, depending on the result.

The scenarios for Friday night

• If the Blue Jackets win, they will finish 29th, the Sharks will be 30th and the Hawks will be 31st.
• If the Blue Jackets lose in overtime or a shootout, the Sharks will finish 29th, the Blue Jackets will be 30th and the Hawks will be 31st.
• If the Blue Jackets lose in regulation, the Sharks will be 29th, the Hawks 30th and Columbus 31st.

Standings

Lowest points percentage with first tiebreaker being regulation wins and second tiebreaker being regulation/overtime wins (ROW):

32. Ducks: .354 points percentage, 13 regulation wins, 20 ROW

31. Blackhawks: .360 points percentage, 18 regulation wins, 24 ROW

30. Blue Jackets: .364 points percentage, 15 regulation wins, 24 ROW

29. Sharks: .366 points percentage, 16 regulation wins, 21 ROW

Remaining games

Blue Jackets 1: Buffalo (H)

Thursday’s results

Blue Jackets 3, Penguins 2 (OT): Emil Benstrom scored with 3:25 left in regulation and Johnny Gaudreau scored on a breakaway 60 seconds into overtime to help Columbus … stun Pittsburgh? That might not be the right way to describe this. Pittsburgh, eliminated from playoff contention the night before, looked like a team lacking motivation for much of the contest, but two power-play goals appeared to have the Penguins headed for a win. Then the Blue Jackets pulled off an improbable comeback and provided just a little more chaos at the bottom of the standings.

Flyers 5, Blackhawks 4 (OT):Jonathan Toews scored in his final game with the Hawks, but he just missed a second on an overtime breakaway and Ivan Provorov scored at the other end to help the Flyers prevail. Andreas Athanasiou scored with two minutes left in regulation to push the game to overtime. That gave both Blue Jackets and especially Sharks fans hope, but the Provorov goal left Chicago with 59 points for the season.

Oilers 5, Sharks 2:Leon Draisaitl had a goal and three points as Edmonton cruised to a victory. The Oilers are going to be the hottest team in the NHL when the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin after winning their final nine games of the season. The Sharks lost 15 of their final 18 games of the season, with one good (or bad, depending on the perspective) week in the middle.

Kings 5, Ducks 3: The Ducks didn’t go down without some fight, both literally and figuratively, against their Southern California rivals. Anaheim trailed by two goals and cut L.A.’s lead to one twice in the final period. There were multiple fracases in the final few minutes. In the end, Anaheim found itself on the wrong end of this result, but on the right end of the league standings.

Friday’s schedule

Sabres at Blue Jackets, 7:30 p.m. ET: Columbus dressed four players for their first NHL game Thursday night, and has now used a franchise-record 47 guys this season. Will the Blue Jackets go for 50? In all seriousness, the Columbus players picked up an emotional win against the rival Penguins and went to overtime. It would be crazy if the Blue Jackets won back-to-back games on the final two days to drop, I mean, rise, from 32nd place to 29th … right?

NHL lottery explainer

The worst 11 teams by points percentage are placed in a lottery to determine the draft order. The 32nd-placed team has a 25.5 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, the 31st team a 13.5 percent, 30th 11.5 percent and that continues to drop to three percent for the 11th-placed team. A team can jump 10 spots in the lottery, but it cannot fall more than two spots. In other words, the worst team will not draft later than third overall.

Top four draft prospect updates

Connor Bedard, Matvei Michkov, Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson are the unanimous top-four prospects in the 2023 draft. Bedard is the definitive No. 1 prospect. After him, there is some debate on who is the next best prospect. The Athletic’s Corey Pronman ranks Michkov second, Fantilli third and Carlsson fourth. The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler had Fantilli second and Michkov third in his most recent rankings last month.

All four players are now done playing with their club teams this season.

The top four prospects have been established for quite a while now. Who could, or should, be the fifth player selected remains far from a consensus. Given that one, or even two, of these bottom-four teams could end up picking outside the top four, let’s take a look at some of the best options at No. 5, a battle that could go all the way to draft day.

It is also worth noting that while Michkov is ranked as high as No. 2 by draft experts, it is certainly possible that his KHL contract could mean he is available at No. 5 if one of the players below slips into the top four.

Will Smith, F, USA U-18 (NTDP)

Corey Pronman (No. 6): “Smith is a dynamic offensive player who stands out every game with his talent. He has tremendous puck skills, vision and overall offensive creativity and projects to be a major asset on an NHL power play.”

Scott Wheeler (No. 5): “There’s just this elusiveness to his game where you never know where he’s going with the puck. I like the way he has learned to hunt and come up with pucks, too. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t become a playmaking top-six center and PP1 creator.”

Zach Benson, F, Winnipeg (WHL) 

Pronman (No. 13): “There is a fair amount of risk on his projection, but his strong compete and tremendous skill plus track record of scoring, makes you think there is still a very good chance he can become a quality top-six wing in the NHL.”

Wheeler (No. 6): “When you package all of that skill with a dogged work ethic that keeps him around pucks all the time, and you’ve got a tremendous player. If he were a little bigger, he’d be a scout’s dream. I think he’s going to be a star regardless.”

David Reinbacher, D, Kloten (SWISS)

Pronman (No. 7): “Reinbacher is an excellent all-around defenseman. His mobility stands out immediately, especially as a 6-foot-2 right-shot defender. … His offensive touch isn’t elite, but he has creativity with the puck and sees the ice well. He projects as a two-way top pair defenseman.”

Wheeler (No. 17): “Reinbacher’s got pro size, desired handedness, and a really strong foundation of tools that all but guarantee he’ll become an NHLer. I expect he’ll be the first defenceman picked when all is said and done, and he may be my top-ranked one too even though (Mikhail) Gulyayev excites me a little more and remains there for now.”

Dalibor Dvorsky, F, Aik (SWEDEN-2)

Pronman (No. 11): “Dvorsky is quite dangerous inside the offensive zone He has excellent puck skills in small areas and can make checkers miss routinely in open ice. … I think with his offensive talent he finds a way to be a good top-six forward despite his skating, but I’m less sure whether he sticks down the middle or has to be a winger.”

Wheeler (No. 8): “Dvorsky is a highly-talented and intelligent playmaker who can threaten defenders and coverage in a variety of ways, whether that’s carving them up in control and finishing cleanly from the home plate area, or sliding off of coverage to find pockets of space to get open into. And while he may not be a driver on a top-six line, it’s not hard to imagine him as a first- or second-line playmaker who makes finishing plays off of a driver’s work and does damage on PP1.”