The Chicago Blackhawks fell out of the NHL draft lottery’s pole position. Here’s where they stand with 1 game to play.

Chicago Tribune
 
The Chicago Blackhawks fell out of the NHL draft lottery’s pole position. Here’s where they stand with 1 game to play.

The Chicago Blackhawks dealt a blow to the Pittsburgh Penguins’ playoff hopes with a 5-2 upset Tuesday, but they also didn’t do themselves any favors in the NHL draft lottery standings.

With the win, keyed by goalie Petr Mrázek’s 38 saves, the Hawks no longer own the worst record in the league.

While the Columbus Blue Jackets picked up a point with a 4-2 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers, the Hawks added two points to leapfrog Columbus in the points race 58-57.

Then in a late West Coast matchup, the Anaheim Ducks lost to the Vancouver Canucks 3-2, which again bumped the Hawks in the points column: from last place to third-worst.

In the Connor Bedard sweepstakes, it’s a race to the bottom — and the Hawks are now losing.

Heading into Wednesday night’s games, Moneypuck.com placed the Hawks’ odds of landing the No. 1 pick at 13.3%, the Blue Jackets at 17% and the Ducks at 19.6%. The draft lottery will take place on May 8.

The Hawks have only their season finale left, hosting the Flyers on Thursday at the United Center.

Two of their competitors for the No. 1 pick — the Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks — had two games remaining entering Wednesday’s schedule.

While the other teams’ schedules give them a chance to gain points on the Hawks, the Hawks’ final opponent — the Flyers — is the worst of the bunch.

  • Blue Jackets: vs. Penguins on Thursday, vs. Buffalo Sabres on Friday
  • Sharks: at Calgary Flames on Wednesday, at Edmonton Oilers on Thursday
  • Ducks: vs. Los Angeles Kings on Thursday

The Penguins could be facing a must-win game against the Blue Jackets for the last wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.

Once all teams play 82 games, the first tiebreaker in the standings is regulation wins, and the Hawks likely would “win” that category with 18. The Blue Jackets have 15 and the Ducks 13, so neither team can catch up.

And even if the Sharks (16) were to win twice in regulation to tie the Hawks, the Hawks would win the next tiebreaker: regulation wins plus overtime wins. The Hawks have 24, the Sharks 21 entering Wednesday.

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The last-place finisher will have an 18.5% chance of winning the first draw in the draft lottery and a 25.5% chance of winning the No. 1 pick because teams that finish 12th through 16th are limited to moving up 10 spots.

Worst-case scenario for the Hawks? They fall to fourth place, and then the math changes significantly. Their odds for winning the first draw and the No. 1 pick drop to 9.5%.

Dropping to the fifth or even sixth slot also could be a very real possibility. That would put the Hawks out of the running for one of the Big Four prospects: Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov and Leo Carlsson.

Prospects such as 5-foot-10 winger Zach Benson and 6-foot center Will Smith are no slouches, but the consensus is there’s a notable drop-off after the Big Four.

Given all the Hawks went through to get in position for a rare generational player — including their trade-deadline purge — it would feel like a big letdown to settle for anything less.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the Hawks have beaten the lottery odds twice in the last two decades.

In 2019, the Hawks jumped from the 12th spot to third and drafted Kirby Dach. And in 2007, they moved up from fifth to first to draft Patrick Kane.