Noche UFC Fight Night: Kevin Holland vs Jack Della Maddalena Odds, Picks & Predictions

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14 September 2023

Noche UFC Fight Night: Kevin Holland vs Jack Della Maddalena Odds, Picks & Predictions

In a welterweight clash between two expert strikers, Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena could go either way. And while our UFC Fight Night picks slightly favor Holland, we don't expect this to last very long whichever way it goes.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena puts two of the welterweight division's biggest strikers against each other in a match that has Fight of the Year potential, and it takes place this weekend on the UFC Fight Night undercard from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

This fight could likely crown the next true contender for the welterweight title, and the propensity for violence is extremely high.

UFC odds have Maddalena the favorite at -148, and Holland is a +124 underdog.

Here are my free picks for Holland vs. Maddalena at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Kevin Holland vs Jack Della Maddalena fight odds

Kevin Holland vs Jack Della Maddalena method of victory odds

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Kevin Holland vs Jack Della Maddalena picks

Fight prediction: Holland ML

By all accounts, this is going to be a fun fight to watch and a difficult one to pick. Kevin Holland should win this fight, but it isn’t going to be easy and Jack Della Maddalena is just as likely to win. These two are strikers at heart, but both have different delivery styles and ground games they can fall back on.

Holland has the better striking power and technique, but he’s been held back by his compromising lack of fight IQ. We saw it in his back-to-back losses to Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson, and it’s a horrible weakness to have when he’s right on the bubble of title contention. To his credit, Holland is aware of his weaknesses and works to rectify them, like giving his ground game a makeover to make him a more complete fighter.

Maddalena’s last fight was a near miss for him, showing the wear of having to cut down to fight weight in consecutive weeks due to rescheduled bouts. He should look closer to form than he did against Bassil Hafez, and Holland can find himself in trouble really fast thanks to his high activity and respectable power.

The pick is Holland, mostly because he does have better tools than Maddalena. The height, reach, striking power, and experience are in his favor, though he has to avoid making costly decisions that will ruin him.

Prediction: Kevin Holland moneyline (+124 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Fight ends before Round 3

Holland has fought superior opposition across welterweight and middleweight, with his most lopsided losses coming against wrestlers. Aside from Stephen Thompson in their legendary battle, no one has been able to come out on top against Holland in a striking war.

Maddalena could just as easily overwhelm Holland with pure activity. The work rate and respectable power could swing the rounds to his favor, and Maddalena will swarm Holland with strikes if he gets complacent. If Maddalena can avoid getting taken down or dropped, this could be too close to call should it head to the scorecards.

These two don’t go the distance often, and I expect this explosive clash of strikers to be over before we get to that point. Picking a winner is hard enough, but I feel that not going into the third round is a strong bet.

Pick: Fight ends before Round 3 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Kevin Holland vs Jack Della Maddalena betting preview

Holland is coming off a first-round submission win via D’arce choke against Michael Chiesa at UFC 291. He is 4-2 since dropping to welterweight in 2022, with all four wins coming inside the distance, split evenly between knockouts and submissions.

Maddalena needed a final-round surge to squeak past Hafez last July. The Australian banger hasn’t lost a fight since 2016, and four of his last five have ended in the first round. Like Holland, Maddalena previously competed as a middleweight before dropping down to welterweight.

Statistically, both fighters rely primarily on striking, with Holland landing 4.11 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy and Maddalena landing an impressive 7.27 significant strikes per minute, also at 52% accuracy. Maddalena has the advantage in striking differential at 3.77 compared to Holland's 1.15. However, Holland will have a four-inch height and an eight-inch reach advantage on fight night, which could play a significant role in the matchup.