North Carolina vs. South Carolina Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Can Defense Slow Veteran Quarterbacks?

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31 August 2023

North Carolina vs. South Carolina Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Can Defense Slow Veteran Quarterbacks?

Two high-profile quarterbacks go head-to-head when Drake Maye leads North Carolina against Spencer Rattler and South Carolina. Here is our North Carolina vs. South Carolina prediction based on the best college football odds.

Last season, North Carolina posted a 9-5 record (6-2 in theACC), marking its highest win total since 2015. Even though the Tar Heels lost their last four games and won three by a single point orless, they could've ended this season with more satisfaction.

South Carolina improved from 7-6 to 8-5 in its second season under head coach Shane Beamer and finished in the final College Football Rankings (No. 19) for the first time. The Gamecocks also ended without a losing conference record (4-4) for the first time since 2018 and won three games against ranked teams (No. 13 Kentucky, No. 5 Tennessee, No. 7 Clemson) before falling to Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl, a game which they led by 14 points after the first quarter before losing by seven.

Here is our best North Carolina vs. South Carolina prediction and college football picks (odds via ourbest college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

North Carolina vs. South Carolina prediction: Week 1

Under 64.5 (-110 via BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

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North Carolina ranked in the top 15 in the country with an average of 76.6 plays per game last season, and its 81.7 plays per game average over the previous three seasons ranks 12th nationally. However, the team should have a different identity this year even though Heisman hopeful Drake Maye returns at quarterback, as offensive coordinator Phil Longo is now in the Big Ten at Wisconsin.

Aside from UNC playing slower, it loses its top two wide receivers (Josh Downs and Antoine Green), who combined for 1,827 yards. Thus, the Tar Heels are relying on Maye to establish a quick rapport with transfers Nate McCollum and Tez Walker. The Tar Heels may also utilize the running game more under new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey, whose UCF team ranked ninth nationally in rushing last year. It would be wise to keep the ball on the ground in this opener, considering the Gamecocks were the nation’s 19th-worst rush defense last year (192.4 yards per game allowed).

We are also down on UNC’s offense heading into this opener when making our college football Week 1 predictions, as the Tar Heels averaged 20.3 points per game during their four-game losing streak to end the season when the competition amped up.

North Carolina could not have been much worse defensively last year, ranking in the bottom 10 in the country in success rate. The Tar Heels have finished 105th or worse in defensive SP+ each of the previous two seasons, but they return the most production of any team on the defensive side of the ball. That will help slow down a South Carolina offense that returns just 53% of its offensive line production.

Pass protection could be an issue for quarterback Spencer Rattler, who guided the team to a top-10 ranking in passing EPA. Until the offense finds time to gel, the Gamecocks should be a one-dimensional offense with little running back depth to take the pressure off Rattler.

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North Carolina vs. South Carolina best odds

(-110)

This is a rare occurrence in college football betting lines, as all five of our best sportsbooks have the same number and charge the same juice for this total. That lack of discrepancy is reflected in the relatively two-way betting action, as 58% of the wagers have backed the Over.

BetRivers is the only shop that deviates from these five, charging -112 juice on either side of the total.

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North Carolina vs. South Carolina odds

Just because all sportsbooks are aligned with the O/U of 64.5 does not mean they have always had uniformity, as BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel opened with a total of 63.5 before sharp action drove the number up. Caesars opened slightly higher at 64 but has plateaued at the same number as the other books.

From a point spread perspective, this matchup has been as quiet as they come, not budging off UNC -2.5 at most sportsbooks since its initial opening. BetRivers was the only book that went to -3 at any point (and charged -118 to back the +3), but that number lasted just two days, moving back under the key number to -2.5 on Sunday.

North Carolina’s moneyline odds range from -130 at DraftKings to -141 at Caesars.