Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction: Wimbledon odds, pick

It felt inevitable that the 2023 Wimbledon men’s final would be a showdown between tournament-favorite Novak Djokovic and World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz.

Djokovic, the four-time defending champion and currently riding a 45-match winning streak on Centre Court, is a -190 favorite to beat Alcaraz on Sunday. 

But the fact Alcaraz, a 20-year-old playing his first Wimbledon final, is a short underdog by tennis standards tells you the market is quite bullish on the Spanish wunderkind despite the fact he’s just a month removed from a whitewashing at the hands of Djokovic in the French Open semifinal. 

Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz pick

(9 a.m. ET)

And you can’t blame bettors for being tempted by the idea of Alcaraz at any underdog price.

Not only does he have an unblemished 11-0 record on grass this season, but he hardly has been in trouble.

Alcaraz has lost just two sets in six matches at Wimbledon. 

The rub is that Djokovic’s record on the lawn is legendary, and he also has a massive edge in experience, as a 23-time Grand Slam and seven-time Wimbledon champion. 

Djokovic has passed every test thrown at him in Grand Slams this year without much issue, and even if he has to survive some scares against Alcaraz, he has given us no reason to believe he won’t be able to do just that. 

The market seems a bit too high on Alcaraz due to the momentum he has built over the fortnight, and though that’s understandable, it’s also putting some value on an all-time great at the other end of the court. 

Our pick

Djokovic -1.5 sets (-105, BetMGM)