Novice chasers: How they stand ahead of Dublin Racing Festival and Cheltenham
Il Est Francais (Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm) – Timeform rating: 160 P
The vibes from France prior to Kempton could hardly have been much stronger and Il Est Francais very much lived up to his billing when thrashing Hermes Allen from the front in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase on Boxing Day.
One significant mistake five fences from the finish was nowhere near enough to take the smooth-travelling six-year-old out of his rhythm, and what was most impressive was just how strong he was after the last, on what was the horse’s first public outing beyond two and three-quarter miles.
It’s hard not to think he’d have been right at home in the King George field, even as a novice, but that particular project will have to wait until next Christmas and a trip to Cheltenham this spring looks unlikely given his main target on home soil is the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris, or ‘French Gold Cup’, which is run at Auteuil in late-May.
Said to be ‘one of the best horses to emerge from France for decades’ by those closest to him, that conjures all sorts of exciting future plans and possibilities, but as things stand, based on what we’ve seen on the track, Il Est Francais is rated 160 with Timeform and the ‘large P’ strongly suggests we’ve not seen the best of him yet.
Marine Nationale (Barry Connell) – Timeform rating: 159 p
Given the fact most of the very best jumps horses are all housed within the same half a dozen stables, owner/trainer Barry Connell must be thanking his lucky stars for landing on Marine Nationale, who arguably still isn’t getting the credit he deserves having now gone unbeaten in two bumpers, three hurdles and one novice chase.
Last season’s massively impressive Sky Bet Supreme winner was fitted with a tongue-tie for his debut over fences at Leopardstown on December 27 and jumped well out in front, ultimately emerging eight and a half lengths to the good over Firm Footings, who had got within a head of Spillane’s Tower (Grade 3 winner since) on his own chasing debut at Punchestown earlier in the month.
Already odds-on for the Goffs Irish Arkle and the Arkle Challenge Trophy at Cheltenham in March, the seven-year-old probably won’t need to improve a great deal on what he’s done already to collect both races and he looks equally as exciting as Il Est Francais, for all they’re never likely to meet on the racecourse given the French horse’s stamina.
Gaelic Warrior (Willie Mullins) – Timeform rating: 158 p
Gaelic Warrior famously failed to land a monumental gamble on his stable debut for Willie Mullins in the 2022 Fred Winter at Cheltenham but hasn’t stopped improving since that short-head second to Brazil when officially rated just 129.
He took the handicap route at the Dublin Racing Festival on his way to Cheltenham last spring, where he finished second to stablemate Impaire Et Passe, and is two from two over fences this term following a beginners chase romp at Punchestown and a Grade 1 victory at Limerick over Christmas.
A return to the DRF for either the Irish Arkle (2m) or the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (2m5f) may help shed some light on his likely Cheltenham target in March but his tendency to jump to the left isn’t ideal at either venue and he’ll surely have to straighten up his act if he’s going to make it third time lucky at the Festival, whichever race that may be in.
Grey Dawning (Dan Skelton) – Timeform rating: 158
Trainer Dan Skelton may have sent out an across-the-card six-timer on the day but Grey Dawning’s Warwick win in mid-January was the standout performance and arguably the standout performance from any novice trained in Britain so far this season.
Timeform certainly think so as his revised rating of 158 is a pretty punchy figure – one that would give him every chance of being in the shake-up in a typical Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham.
The fact he was beaten at Prestbury Park on his only previous visit in a novice chase earlier this season can’t really be held against him as he looked set to go very close – and still did – until blundering badly at the second-last fence.
His jumping still has a little room for improvement based on the Hampton Novices’ Chase success, and it’s worth highlighting the fact he fell when stepped up to the highest level over hurdles at Aintree last spring, but there’s no doubting his class and he has the potential to go right to the top in the staying ranks.
Fact To File (Willie Mullins) – Timeform rating: 157 p
A combination of age (he’s already seven), maturity and underlying class prompted Willie Mullins to skip hurdles entirely and go straight over fences with the JP McManus-owned Fact To File, and it’s already looking an inspired move.
Mullins famously took the same approach with Florida Pearl many years ago and he turned out to be a champion and while this horse has a long way to go to be uttered in the same breath as him, the signs are seriously positive.
Essentially the second best bumper horse last year, having been runner-up to A Dream To Share at both Leopardstown and Cheltenham last February/March, Fact To File ran a promising second to a more experience rival in American Mike first time out over fences at Navan and the manner in which he went one better at Leopardstown over Christmas had his trainer reaching for the superlatives.
That 17-length dismissal of Zanahiyr and Minella Cocooner (winner since) simply oozed class and his jumping was foot-perfect from the outset.
Blessed with natural speed as well as plenty of stamina by the looks of it, he looks made to run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup next year and it’ll take a massive performance to beat him if lining up in the Brown Advisory at the Festival this March.
Found A Fifty (Gordon Elliott) – Timeform rating: 156
Found A Fifty failed to make the cut at the highest level during his novice hurdle campaign, often getting a little buzzed up in the preliminaries and racing with the choke out.
However, the switch to fences seems to have been the making of him and he’s won both starts either side of bumping into the vastly more experience Irish National winner I Am Maximus who was taking full advantage of a quirk in the conditions of the Drinmore at Fairyhouse in early-December.
Dropping back in trip (2m1f) posed Found A Fifty no problems when registering his first success at the highest level in the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown’s Winter Festival, although one could argue that race fell apart as odds-on favourite Facile Vega failed to give his running and eventual runner-up My Mate Mozzie was just picking up the pieces having been held up last early on.
With a tendency to jump right at Leopardstown, he’s likely to be given more practice there at the DRF before having a crack at the Arkle at Cheltenham but he might just remain a rung below an elite performer like Marine Nationale.
Grangeclare West (Willie Mullins) – Timeform rating: 155 p
Having cost £430,000, Grangeclare West was starting to look a tad bit disappointing after heavy defeats when upped in class at Naas and Leopardstown early last year but, following an 81-day break, he signed off his time over hurdles with a win at Punchestown and he's picked up where he left off since being switched to fences this season.
His front-running success over two and a half miles at Naas first time out was fairly straightforward but he sprouted wings over the final two fences when following up in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown last time and he appears to have the fencing world at his feet based on that evidence.
There is a train of thought which suggests he might have been slightly flattered by racing on the wide outside late on but he beat some top-class rivals that day - and beat them hollow - so it would be dangerous to underestimate the form.
If he lines up in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase on March 13 he'll be making his Cheltenham debut which might be a disadvantage against the likes of Stay Away Fay and stablemate Fact To File.
Salvador Ziggy (Gordon Elliott) – Timeform rating: 153+
Salvador Ziggy is something of a forgotten horse having not been sighted in public since a bold trip to American for the 'Grand National Hurdle Stakes' at Far Hills went awry towards the end of October.
He'd been on a bit of a roll up until then, winning three times over fences in the summer before a highly creditable second in the Kerry National when conceding over a stone in weight to winner Desertmore House.
He holds entries in the National Hunt Chase and the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham and has plenty of experience under the belt if the former race is being seriously considered. Decent ground seems preferable and you wouldn't rule out a shot at the Grand National next season all being well.
Hermes Allen (Paul Nicholls) – Timeform rating: 153
Hermes Allen couldn't live with Il Est Francais at Kempton on Boxing Day but he had only had the one previous chase start before being pitched into that Grade 1, and it's worth remembering he was only drafted in late after an issue came to light with stablemate Knappers Hill.
In the circumstances, Paul Nicholls' horse didn't lose a huge amount in defeat, having been sent off favourite, and he still looks to have a considerable future over fences having not been far behind the very best novice hurdlers over an intermediate trip last year.
All ground comes alike to this horse and Nicholls will be keen to try and aim for a Grade 1 win before the season is out, whether that's more likely to be at Aintree over Cheltenham remains to be seen.
Facile Vega (Willie Mullins) – Timeform rating: 152+
Facile Vega, out of the Cheltenham Festival legend that is Quevega, has already achieved a great deal himself having won the Weatherbys Champion Bumper and a Grade 1 over hurdles last year en route to finishing second behind Impaire Et Passe in the Sky Bet Supreme.
He got little trouble justifying odds-on favouritism on chasing debut in a beginners event at Navan in November but subsequently flopped when a skinny price again at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Interestingly, he failed to give his running at Leopardstown last February before bouncing back at Cheltenham and Punchestown in the spring and it will be interesting to see if he takes up his engagement in the Irish Arkle at the DRF early next month.
Patrick Mullins has suggested he'd like to try him over a longer distance at some point as he doesn't jump slickly enough to make it at the highest level over the minimum trip. Given his breeding, longer distances could obviously eke out a bit more improvement and it's far too soon to be giving up on the horse as a genuine top-class prospect.
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