Nuggets vs. Heat prediction, odds, time: 2023 NBA Finals Game 3 picks, bets by Denver expert on 58-38 roll

The Miami Heat will look to gain the advantage as they return home for Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. Miami evened the series on Sunday night with a 111-108 victory at Denver. The Nuggets (53-29) have been dominant, but not so much on the road, posting a 4-3 record away from home this postseason. The Heat (44-38), who have won 13 of their 20 postseason games, are 7-2 on their home court in the playoffs.

Tipoff from Kaseya Center in Miami is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Denver is a 3-point favorite in the latest Heat vs. Nuggets odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 213.5. Before making any Nuggets vs. Heat picks, make sure you .

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach. He excels in the NBA, especially when picking Denver Nuggets games. Over the past 99 Denver matchups, he is 58-38-3 against the spread, returning $1,625 for $100 players. 

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and just locked in his picks and 2023 NBA Finals predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see Hartstein's picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat:

• Nuggets vs. Heat spread: Nuggets -3
• Nuggets vs. Heat over/under: 213.5 points
• Nuggets vs. Heat money line: Nuggets -165, Heat +140
• DEN: The Nuggets are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 Wednesday games
• MIA: The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games
• Nuggets vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game| Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets

Why the Nuggets can cover

Center Nikola Jokic continues to exhibit his former MVP form. In Sunday's loss, Jokic poured in 41 points, while grabbing 11 rebounds and four assists. He is averaging 34 points, 10.5 rebounds and nine assists in the series. Jokic has scored at least 23 points in all but one postseason game, including a high of 43 points in a first-round loss at Minnesota on April 23. He has registered nine triple-doubles during the postseason, including six in the past eight games.

Small forward Michael Porter Jr. registered a double-double in the series opener, scoring 14 points and grabbing 13 rebounds with two blocks and an assist. He posted three double-doubles in the four-game Western Conference final series against the Los Angeles Lakers. He has posted seven double-doubles this postseason. Porter is connecting on 43.5% of his shots from the floor, including 37.5% from 3-point range. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Small forward Jimmy Butler has carried Miami through much of the playoffs and continues to come up big when the Heat need it most. After dropping the series opener, Miami was able to knot the series on Sunday with another solid performance from Butler, who narrowly missed a double-double with 21 points, nine assists and four rebounds. Butler has scored 20 or more points in three of the past four games, including a 28-point, seven-rebound and six-assist effort in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Boston Celtics. In 19 playoff games, Butler is averaging 27.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.9 assists.

Point guard Gabe Vincent was dominant in the Game 2 win over the Nuggets, posting 23 points, three assists and two steals. He has reached double-figure scoring in each of the past six games. In the Game 1 loss, Vincent scored 19 points, while adding five assists, two rebounds and one block. He came up big in the Eastern Conference finals against Boston as well, scoring 29 points in a dominant 128-102 Game 3 win. In 19 postseason games, he is averaging 13.9 points, 3.9 assists and 1.6 rebounds. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Nuggets picks

Hartstein is leaning Under on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread to back, at SportsLine.