Nuggets vs. Heat prediction, odds, time: 2023 NBA Finals Game 5 picks, bets by Denver expert on 60-38 run

The Denver Nuggets are one win away from securing their first NBA championship as they meet the Miami Heat in Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals. After splitting the first two games in Denver, the Nuggets (53-29) won both games in Miami, including a 108-95 triumph on Friday. Denver, the top seed in the Western Conference, had never advanced past the conference finals until this year. The Heat (44-38), just the second eighth-seed to ever reach the NBA Finals, are seeking their first title since 2012-2013 and fourth overall.

Tip-off from Ball Arena in Denver is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Denver leads the all-time series 41-35, and has won 12 of the past 14 matchups. The Nuggets are 9-point favorites in the latest Heat vs. Nuggets odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 208.5. Before making any Nuggets vs. Heat picks, make sure you check out what SportsLine NBA expert Larry Hartstein has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. Larry tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS (61%). Those selections formed the basis of his SportsLine NFL best bets article, which finished 36-25-1. 

Hartstein also excels in MLB, college basketball and the NBA, especially when picking Denver Nuggets games. Over the past 100 Denver matchups, he is 60-38-3 against the spread (plus $1,825 for $100 players, every bet 1 unit).

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and just locked in his picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat: 

• Heat vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -9
• Heat vs. Nuggets over/under: 208.5 points
• Heat vs. Nuggets money line: Heat +310, Nuggets -400
• MIA: The Heat are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games against a team with a winning % of greater than.600
• DEN: The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall
• Heat vs. Nuggets picks: See pick at SportsLine
  

Featured Game| Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat

Why the Nuggets can cover 

Although Denver center Nikola Jokic didn't record a triple-double, he continued his postseason dominance with a double-double in Game 4, scoring 23 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. He still has three triple-doubles in his past five games, with the other two being double-doubles, including a 41-point and 11-rebound effort in the Game 2 loss in Denver. He has 16 career postseason triple-doubles, including 10 this postseason. In 19 playoff games, Jokic is averaging 30.1 points, 13.3 rebounds, 9.8 assists and 1.1 steals and one block.

Point guard Jamal Murray has also been a dominant force, and is coming off a double-double in the Game 4 win. In 43 minutes of action, Murray scored 15 points, while dishing out 12 assists and grabbing three rebounds. It was his third double-double of the series, after having posted a triple-double in Game 3. In 19 postseason games, Murray is averaging 26.7 points - nearly seven more than his season average – 7.1 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami has done a good job of avoiding being forced into a must-win situation this postseason, but that's exactly where the Heat find themselves for the rest of this series. That's why they will turn to small forward Jimmy Butler, who has been the team's foundation throughout the playoffs. In Game 4, Butler poured in 25 points, while grabbing seven rebounds and dishing out seven assists. It was his third 20-plus scoring game of the series and 17th of these playoffs. In 21 postseason games, he is averaging 27.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.7 steals.

Center Bam Adebayo is another force in Miami's offense, who is coming off his third double-double of the series. In Game 4, he scored 20 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, while adding three assists, one block and one steal. He has nine double-doubles and one triple-double in the postseason. In 22 playoff games, all starts, he is averaging 17.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Nuggets picks

Hartstein is leaning Over on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread to back, at SportsLine.