Nuggets vs. Lakers Predictions, Picks & Odds: Can LeBron Will L.A. to Victory?

sportsbookreview.com

19 May 2023

The Los Angeles Lakers face an uphill climb to get back into the Western Conference Finals. Can LeBron James deliver an all-timer to get his team back on track versus the Denver Nuggets? Our Nuggets vs. Lakers prediction is based on the best NBA odds.

In Game 1 against the Denver Nuggets, the Los Angeles Lakers found themselves behind for the majority of the match before mounting a comeback in the fourth quarter. However, the dynamics changed completely in Game 2, with the Lakers coming out strong and dominating the game for the first three quarters. Unfortunately for them, a remarkable performance by Jamal Murray in the final moments propelled the Nuggets to victory.

While LeBron James had a few late errors, his exceptional performance will be crucial for the Lakers to prevent falling into an insurmountable 3-0 series deficit.

Here is our best Nuggets vs. Lakers prediction (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Nuggets vs. Lakers prediction

LeBron James to record a triple-double (+530 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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These are long odds at the best live betting sites, but hear me out! James has been racking up the counting stats as of late, and we can expect him to keep doing that in Game 3 back home. I wagered on a James triple-double in Game 2, and he came up just a rebound shy with 22 points, 10 assists, and nine boards. Over his last three, he’s averaged 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 9.3 assists with two double-doubles.

James’ performance over his last three is far different than that of his previous 11. In those 11 games, he averaged 22.8 points, 10.1 boards, and just five assists. The double-doubles were there, as he recorded five, and he finished with nine boards in eight of those games. James’ rebounds have been solid, but he hasn’t been getting it done as a facilitator until recently.

Over those last three, Austin Reaves has averaged 22.7 points and Rui Hachimura has caught fire with 38 total points over his last two contests. D’Angelo Russell’s minutes are down to just 29.5 against Denver, and he’s averaged only four assists. James’ shot hasn’t been falling, especially from deep, and he’s relying on teammates to get it done. Anthony Davis can be counted on for his usual dominance, and when role players are cooking, James can find them.

LeBron has been better as a facilitator at home, handing out 7.2 dimes at home compared to 6.5 on the road during the regular season. In the playoffs, he’s dished 5.3 on the road and 6.9 at home. He’s also playing at less than 100% after stepping on Aaron Gordon’s foot in Game 2, so it’s likely a big performance will include getting teammates involved, rather than trying to dominate on offense as a one-man show.

James has come just a single stat from a triple-double in each of his last two games, so we’re going back to the well in Game 3. He won’t let his team fall into a 3-0 series hole in this must-win affair.

Nuggets vs. Lakers best odds

DraftKings (+530)

Three of our best sports betting apps offer odds at +500 or longer, with DraftKings offering the most profitable odds at +530. This is where we’ll turn our attention.

Our Shane Jackson is on two different props for Game 3, which he highlighted in his NBA best bets for Saturday.

Nuggets vs. Lakers odds

Nuggets vs. Lakers odds analysis

The Lakers opened as small 3.5-point favorites, but that line has moved two more points in favor of the home team at the best sports betting sites. After two close contests in Mile High, oddsmakers are counting on the Lakers to finally get over the hump at home. The Nuggets were 34-7 at home compared to just 19-22 on the road straight up in the regular season, while the Lakers were 23-18 at home compared to 20-21 on the road.

Los Angeles is playing great basketball, and Denver is a beatable opponent when home-court advantage is taken away. Despite playing on the road, the Nuggets have drawn 54% of wagers to cover.

The point total opened at 224.5 at the best sportsbooks, and it’s moved down a point to a modest 223.5. Denver has hit the Over in just one of its last four, while Los Angeles has hit the Over in three of four. The Lakers are 12-17 to the Under as the home favorite, and the Nuggets are 11-7 to the Over as the road dog. Bettors favor a higher-scoring game, with 67% of wagers placed on the Over.