Nuggets vs. Pelicans Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets

CJ McCollum’s New Orleans Pelicans (38-38) will look to upset Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets when the Pelicans square off against the Nuggets on March 30, 2023. The line has the Nuggets favored by 5.5 points against the Pelicans. The game’s point total is 226.5.

Nuggets vs. Pelicans Odds

• Nuggets odds to win: -221
• Pelicans odds to win: +183
• Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
• Total: 226.5

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Game Time and Information

• When: Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET
• Where: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
• TV: TNT

Who Will Win Nuggets vs. Pelicans?

Nuggets and Pelicans Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Nuggets have a 20-14-1 record against the spread when favored by 5.5 points or more this season.

The Pelicans are 1-8 against the spread when an underdog by 5.5 points or more this season.

The two teams average a combined 4.6 more points per game, 231.1, than this matchup’s over/under of 226.5 points.

Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 225.2 points per game, 1.3 fewer than the over/under for this game.

The average point total in Nuggets games this season is three more points than the over/under of 226.5 in this matchup.

The average point total for New Orleans this year is 0.3 points higher than this game’s over/under.

Denver is 40-33-2 against the spread this season.

So far this year, the Pelicans have compiled a 36-39-1 record against the spread.

Nuggets Stats & Insights

The Nuggets’ +312 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 4.1 points per game) is a result of scoring 116.8 points per game (ninth in the NBA) while allowing 112.7 per outing (10th in the league).

The Nuggets come out on top in the rebound battle by an average of 2.6 boards. They are recording 42.8 rebounds per game (19th in the league) compared to their opponents’ 40.2 per outing.

Denver makes 12.1 three-pointers per game (15th in the league) compared to its opponents’ 11.3. It shoots 38.9% from deep while its opponents hit 34.4% from long range.

The Nuggets rank first in the NBA with 117.5 points scored per 100 possessions, and 19th in the league defensively with 113.2 points conceded per 100 possessions.

During the 2022-23 season, the Nuggets are scoring 7.9 more points per home game on average than on the road (120.7 at home, 112.8 on the road), but are conceding 5.2 fewer points per home game compared to road games (110.1 at home, 115.3 on the road).

Pelicans Stats & Insights

The Pelicans outscore opponents by 1.8 points per game (posting 114.3 points per game, 15th in league, and giving up 112.5 per contest, seventh in NBA) and have a +136 scoring differential.

The 43.7 rebounds per game New Orleans accumulates rank 12th in the NBA, 1.9 more than the 41.8 its opponents grab.

The Pelicans connect on 11 three-pointers per game (22nd in the league) while shooting 36.2% from beyond the arc (15th in NBA). They are making 1.3 fewer threes than their opponents, who drain 12.3 per game at 34%.

The Pelicans rank 21st in the league averaging 111.6 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are fifth, allowing 109.8 points per 100 possessions.

At home New Orleans is putting up 114.5 points per game, 0.4 more than it is averaging away (114.1).

Nuggets Key Players to Watch

The Nuggets get 24.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 9.9 assists from Jokic.

Michael Porter Jr. makes more threes per game than any other (active) member of the Nuggets, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of three per contest.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope averages 1.4 steals per game, while Aaron Gordon has 0.7 blocks per contest.

Pelicans Key Players to Watch

McCollum’s showing this season has resulted in strong scoring and assists numbers, with 20.8 points per game and 5.9 assists per game to go with 4.4 rebounds per contest.

This season, Jonas Valanciunas has a statline of 14.3 points, 1.8 assists and 10.1 rebounds per game.

McCollum hits 2.8 treys per game.

The Pelicans’ defensive efforts get a boost from Herbert Jones’ 1.6 steals and Valanciunas’ 0.6 blocks per game.

• Pick ATS: Nuggets (- 5.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (226.5)
  

• Prediction:
  Nuggets 118 – Pelicans 110