Nuggets vs. Raptors picks and odds: Back Toronto and the over
The Toronto Raptors return home to face the Denver Nuggets.
The pregame narrative: Toronto didn’t give fans much to cheer about, dropping four of five on the team’s recent road trip. Coming back to Scotiabank Arena should do the Raps some good, however, especially against a Denver squad that’s anything but dominant away from Ball Arena.
NBA odds as of 7:53 a.m. on 3/14/223.
Nuggets vs. Raptors picks
Best Bet: Raptors moneyline (-11)
No team in the NBA exhibits a starker home-road split than Denver.
The Nuggets are a dominant 3-6 at home this year thanks to a combination of unique home-court advantage due to altitude and MVP-frontrunner Nikola Jokic’s dominant play. While the latter’s mostly unchanged when travelling, fitting 5,28 feet of elevation onto a plane’s not possible.
But even Jokic’s numbers dip when on the road. Check out his splits this year.
The dominant big man’s averaging nearly three-fewer rebounds per game and 2.5 fewer assists when on the road.
The Raptors, meanwhile, are similar to the Nuggets in this sense. They’re an impressive 2-13 at home while an atrocious 12-23 on the road. These two met on March 6 in Denver, a game the Raps were leading entering the fourth quarter before eventually losing 118-113.
They’ve won four consecutive games in Toronto and should find success in their own building.
Key stat: Denver has lost two of its last three away contests, most recently losing 128-12 to the lowly San Antonio Spurs.
Quick picks
Over 228.5 points (-17): In addition to an uptick in losses on the road this year, Denver’s also experiencing more overs. The Nuggets own the ninth-highest road-over percentage (56.3%) in the league, according to Team Rankings. They’ve gone above this mark in back-to-back away contests.
The Raptors are 51.5% to the over at home and have cleared this mark in three of their last five.
Raptors over 114.5 (-18): Denver’s defence is a major reason why they’re undergoing turbulence on the road. The team’s allowing the eighth-fewest points per game at home (11.1), but the 13th-most on the road (116.3).
Toronto’s offence is averaging 113.4 points per game at home but has gone over this number in four of its last five contests.
