Nuggets vs. Suns: NBA playoffs Game 2 odds, prediction, pick

Just a few days ago, the Suns were the favorites to win the Western Conference and among the favorites to win it all.

Now they find themselves dealing as underdogs to win their second-round series against the Nuggets, who are favored to win Game 2 after a statement win to open this series.

Denver had little issue dispatching the mighty Suns in the first game of this series, though Kevin Durant and co. will almost certainly deliver a counterpunch after that early loss.

Will it be enough to turn the tides in their favor?

Here’s how we’re betting Monday’s contest, which tips off at 10 p.m. ET on TNT.

Nuggets vs. Suns odds

• Nuggets -4.5 (-105), moneyline -175
• Suns +4.5 (-115), moneyline +145
• O/U 228.5 (over -115)

Nuggets vs. Suns prediction and analysis

(10 p.m. ET, TNT)

Whatever you thought of these two teams entering this series, it’s hard to ignore what we saw from the Nuggets in their 125-107 home win in Game 1.

And the Suns left that loss, with plenty of questions that just might not have answers by Game 2.

The biggest one, clearly, is how to stop Jamal Murray. The Nuggets lead guard showed flashes of postseason brilliance in 2020, when he averaged 26.5 points with four games of at least 40 points – including two 50-pieces – but injuries have sidelined the dynamic scorer for each of Denver’s last two postseason runs.

He’s back in a big way this year, as he showed in a dominant Game 1 performance.

Murray led all players with 34 points and nine assists, hitting six of his team’s 16 threes with a display of elite shot-making that Suns coach Monty Williams essentially deemed “unguardable” in his postgame presser.

His hot hand helped the Nuggets overcome the Suns’ strong shooting night from the floor (51.2%), though that offensive surge for Phoenix came with a healthy heap of live-ball turnovers and a lousy effort on the glass, where Denver won the rebounding battle by 11 with 16 offensive boards in total.

Those issues aren’t going away anytime soon: the Suns surrendered at least 12 offensive rebounds in three of their five games against the Clippers, and they finished with double-digit turnovers in four of those five contests.

It ultimately didn’t matter, as Durant’s scoring prowess was no match for Los Angeles’ injury-riddled roster.

That isn’t the case here. The Nuggets aren’t the best No. 1 seed we’ve seen over time, but this is a deep team with elite star power – to the point where Murray’s Game 1 heroics relegated the two-time reigning MVP in Nikola Jokic (24 points, 19 rebounds) to a relative footnote in a blowout affair.

Betting on the NBA?

Really, that contest exposed two truths about this series and matchup in general: the betting market is seriously undervaluing the Nuggets writ large, and it’s overstating the relative strength of the Suns, whose depth and defense took a serious hit when they traded for Durant at the deadline.

They’ve been able to overpower teams, anyway, but they haven’t really been tested to this point, either.

This is the real test, and I didn’t see much in Game 1 that would suggest a reversal of fortune in Game 2 – especially if “Bubble Murray” is here to stay.