Lakers vs. Nuggets Game 1 prediction: NBA odds, best bets, pick

Three years after their “bubble” showdown in the 2020 Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets and Lakers meet again on the very same stage after ousting two of the biggest title favorites of this entire NBA season.

Denver blitzed the Suns in the second round to reach its fifth conference finals in team history – with each of the last three trips ending at the hands of Los Angeles.

These Lakers will try to play spoiler once again after upsetting the Grizzlies and Warriors to reach this point.

Here’s how we’re betting Tuesday’s Game 1 contest, which tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Nuggets vs. Lakers odds

• Nuggets -6.5 (-105), moneyline -250
• Lakers +6.5 (-115), moneyline +200
• O/U 222.5 (over -115)

Nuggets vs. Lakers prediction and analysis

(8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN)

While this line suggests a relatively sizable gap between these two teams ahead of Game 1, there’s a lot to like about each side ahead of one of the more compelling matchups of the entire postseason.

For the Nuggets, everything runs through Nikola Jokic, who has taken his game to another level in these playoffs.

In the second round, the two-time MVP averaged a ridiculous 34.5 points, 13.2 rebounds and 10.3 assists on 59.4% shooting, while adding a block and a steal per game and shooting 44.4% from behind the arc.

His heroics have carried Denver to the best record (8-3) and net rating (+8.6) of any team this postseason, despite facing the longtime West favorites in the second round.

Yet he’s benefitted mightily from the strong play from the Nuggets’ bench, which is suited perfectly around the team’s superstar center.

On the other side, Anthony Davis has done all the heavy lifting for the Lakers through the first two rounds.

His size frustrated the shooting-deficient Grizzlies in Round 1 and was too much to handle for the undersized Warriors in Round 2 – both with his dominant scoring streaks on offense and his otherworldly defense as a rim protector.

Now he’ll face his toughest test yet trying to corral Jokic, who has the size and craftiness to challenge Davis inside and the range to pull Davis out of the paint, freeing up cutting lanes for the ever-active role players in Denver.

That worked to great success for the Warriors in the conference semifinals, though their lack of size was their ultimate undoing.

The Lakers have matchups to exploit on the offensive end, too, though it remains an open question whether it’ll be enough.

Denver withstood supernova efforts from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and ultimately forced the Suns’ role players to step up.

Betting on the NBA?

They couldn’t, and the Nuggets took full advantage en route to a six-game series win.

Los Angeles’ supporting cast is better than Phoenix’s, but it’s still prone to streakiness, especially on the road.

The Lakers’ bench has posted a +8.7 net rating in six home games this postseason and a -5.7 net rating in six away games, and they’ve shot 4.5 percentage points worse on the road.

Sometimes, it really is as simple as home-court advantage in the playoffs.

The Nuggets are a perfect 6-0 straight up (5-1 against the spread) at home this postseason, outscoring teams by a ridiculous 13.9 points per 100 possessions, and they’ve posted the best home record in the league SU (40-7) and ATS (30-16-1) across the entire season.