Nuggets vs. Thunder or Timberwolves odds, betting strategy: Simulation value, series pick, title chances and more to know

Eight different seven-game series will begin this weekend in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. For the diehards, it represents a two-day, wall-to-wall buffet of basketball action, and the final Game 1 matchup takes place in Denver. The No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets will meet either the Minnesota Timberwolves or the Oklahoma City Thunder to begin a Western Conference clash.

Denver is a No. 1 seed for the first time after putting together an impressive 2022-23 season. Led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets won 53 games, even with a bit of a late-season swoon. Denver's offense is potent to say the least, and the Nuggets also aim to stop the fourth-longest drought (46 seasons) of any team without reaching the NBA Finals. 

The Nuggets will welcome either the Minnesota Timberwolves or the Oklahoma City Thunder at 10:30 pm ET on Sunday. Minnesota entered the play-in seeking back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since 2004, and the Timberwolves produced back-to-back 40-win seasons for the first time since 2005. Minnesota fell to the Los Angeles Lakers in the first play-in matchup, but the Wolves project to have Rudy Gobert back to join Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns at the top of the call sheet. 

Oklahoma City is seeking its first playoff appearance since 2020. While teams like Denver entered the season with lofty expectations, the Thunder were projected by some as a team that could contend for a pile of pong-pong balls in the draft lottery. Instead, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led a resurgent squad that is young, versatile, dynamic, and capable of winning with a unique style.

Before the final play-in matchup, Denver is +350 to win the Western Conference this season and +1000 to win the 2023 NBA championship. Oklahoma City is listed at +15000 to win the West and +40000 to win the title, with Minnesota listed at +12500 to win the West and +30000 to win the championship.

Full series odds

The Wolves are favored by 5.5 points at Caesars Sportsbook against the Thunder in the play-in, with the over/under listed at 228.5.

Series odds to come.

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