Timberwolves take on Nuggets in first round of NBA playoffs: Keys to the series, and a prediction

Less than 46 hours after clinching their hard-earned playoff berth, the Timberwolves will take the floor in Denver for Game 1 of their NBA Western Conference first-round series against the top-seeded Nuggets.

Game 1 of the best-of-seven-games series is Sunday night in Denver.

That doesn’t leave much time for preparation and scouting. The good news, Timberwolves coach Chris Finch noted, is Minnesota’s staff started working on a Denver scouting report prior to beating the Thunder, just in case. The plan was to start imparting some of that knowledge to the team Saturday, hitting players with the highlights.

But there will be no deep dives prior to the start of the series.

“I don’t think we can overcomplicate things right now. We just have to be ready to go, get back physically,” Finch said. “One advantage of playing in these games, I think, is that you’re pretty battle-ready. So I think our competitive edge will be there, for sure.”

Wolves guard Mike Conley noted how good the Nuggets are and have been all season. But he said sometimes it’s easier to just jump right into a series without preparation.

“We’re going to come in after a couple of games and ride the momentum that we have. Not to overthink anything, because the moment can be a little bit stressful for a lot of people,” Conley said. “Just to continue to understand that if we go out there, play our game, not be somebody that we’re not, and guys play within themselves, play within their role, that it gives us our best chance of winning.”

Minnesota did split the season series with the Nuggets, with both teams winning at home. But Karl-Anthony Towns didn’t play in any of those games, and the Nuggets sat all of their pertinent players for one of the Target Center tilts. So many unknowns remain heading into the series.

With that in mind, here are potential keys to the first-round, best-of-seven series:

Game 1

This one sounds obvious, but Game 1 could go a long way toward determining the length of the series, and even the potential winner. Minnesota struck first in its first-round series against Memphis a year ago, and that result set the tone for a long, competitive series.

The Timberwolves’ lack of rest would figure to be a negative. But on the flip side, Minnesota has been in playoff mode all week — and, frankly, well beyond that as it competed for seeding for weeks.

Denver essentially had the No. 1 seed locked up long ago. The Nuggets’ starters haven’t played a game in eight days, and Denver’s full-strength unit suffered losses to teams like Utah and Houston during the regular season’s home stretch. The Timberwolves figure to be in more prime form at the moment, and should look to catch the Nuggets on their heels Sunday before the top seed finds its footing in the series.

Aaron Gordon

Denver’s power forward was considered by many to be an all-star snub this season. His defensive prowess and ability to rebound and knock down key shots helped catapult Denver to the top seed in the West.

He was certainly a barometer of the Nuggets’ success against Minnesota during the regular season. In the Wolves’ win at Target Center against the Nuggets’ full force, Gordon was just 4 for 18 shooting from the field as Minnesota hid Rudy Gobert on Gordon, allowing the center to help freely on defending Nikola Jokic.

Gobert’s roaming left Gordon open for a number of looks he did not knock down. On the flip side, Gordon was wonderful in Denver’s two victories over the Wolves.

The forward, who is Denver’s best defender, will likely be tasked with guarding Karl-Anthony Towns. If he can do that successfully, while also forcing Minnesota to defend him honestly, the Wolves will be in trouble.

Easy buckets

One of Minnesota’s losses in Denver was a tight affair that was lowlighted by a couple of buckets the Nuggets scored by seemingly catching the Wolves off guard by inbounding the ball quickly in the back court and charging down the floor for a quick shot.

That can’t happen in a playoff game, where every score is valuable. Denver and Minnesota both generated fast-break points at a high rate this season, but the Wolves were susceptible to allowing transition buckets. The Wolves need to be aware at all times — in live-ball and dead-ball situations — of Denver potentially getting out on the run.

Every basket must be earned.

Bench brigades

Denver’s bench has been its Achilles’ heel for a couple of years now, and this year’s reserves, while slightly improved, still fall into the same bucket.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has a tight rotation caused largely by the injuries to Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid. Minnesota is essentially playing just seven guys meaningful minutes at the moment.

Finch said that rotation will need to lengthen, but that can’t come at the expense of production and quality minutes. Denver is too good to allow it to attack a less-than-productive lineup for any period of time.

Given the Nuggets’ strong starting lineup, the Timberwolves will need to win the bench minutes to have a shot at pulling off the series upset.

Prediction

Denver in 6. Minnesota is far more talented than your typical No. 8 seed, and has the personnel to challenge Denver and make life difficult for Jokic. But it’s difficult to trust the Wolves’ ability to deliver consistent results throughout the course of a series, especially against such a top-flight opponent.