Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction: NBA odds, picks, bets bets
The Denver Nuggets moved ahead of Oklahoma City in the standings and now trail the Timberwolves by a half-game for the No. 1 seed in the NBA’s Western Conference.
Denver now faces its third straight quality opponent when it visits the Thunder on Wednesday night in a battle between the Western Conference elite.
While the Nuggets looked impressive with back-to-back wins against the 76ers and Bucks, they likely benefited from playing in front of their home crowd.
The Nuggets are 19-4 at Ball Arena vs. 14-11 on the road.
With two of their four losses at home coming against the Thunder, the Nuggets will hope to return the favor Wednesday night.
Additionally, Denver might catch a break as the Thunder’s second-leading scorer, Jalen Williams (18.7 points per game), is out with an ankle injury.
Chet Holmgren and Luguentz Dort are also battling ankle injuries, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is dealing with an undisclosed illness. All three players will be game-time decisions.
Given this lengthy Thunder injury report, the Nuggets stand a decent chance to even the season series. However, I’ll explain why other worrying signs might be afoot for OKC in this matchup.
Nikola Jokic (questionable) is the only key player for Denver on the injury report. The two-time MVP has some lower back pain, but he’s been durable this season, missing only one game.
I’d expect Jokic to suit up in a double-revenge spot for the Nuggets, who will certainly want to avenge their 26-point loss from the previous meeting.
The Nuggets have been guilty of lopsided losses at times this season. Before this two-game winning streak, they suffered a 122-84 loss on the road against the Knicks.
Even with that disappointing performance, they rank third in points allowed over the last two weeks. Their best win of the season might’ve come during that stretch when they handed the Celtics their first home loss, 102-100.
If Denver’s defense can continue to improve, it’ll soon be one of five teams ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
One of the more impressive things about Oklahoma City this season is that it has yet to post three consecutive losses. The Thunder will put that streak to the test for a fifth time this season.
However, Oklahoma City’s 107.9 offensive rating in its last two games is by far its lowest when compared to the other four times it suffered back-to-back losses.
Holmgren is the most noticeable player to suffer a dip in form. The slender power forward is coming off single-digit performances in back-to-back games. Moreover, Holmgren has averaged 11.6 points over his last five games after averaging at least 17.3 points for much of the season.
While the Thunder won’t want to make excuses, one can’t help but wonder if fatigue is starting to impact the first-year player. It’s also entirely possible Holmgren’s recent struggles have something to do with his ankle injury.
Nevertheless, Oklahoma City has lacked the dynamism we’ve seen from them for much of the season. In the two losses, the Thunder averaged 95.25 possessions per game — roughly five fewer than their season average.
OKC also managed just 5.5 fastbreak points in those games, putting it last in the league during that span.
Something’s not quite right here with the Thunder, who need to find a way to get back to playing their brand of basketball.
(8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass)
The Nuggets would welcome a slower pace to the game, given that it aligns more with their playing style. NBA.com has Denver 28th in tempo, with 97.5 possessions per game.
We’ve already seen the total drop from 231.5 to as low as 227 at one sportsbook.
Denver is still a prideful group, and when teams with a winning percentage of .680 or higher seek to avenge a loss of 26 or more points, our Action Labs database shows they’re 63-50-1 against the spread for 9.26 units.
The Nuggets fit that criteria, so I’ll take the 2.5 points BetRivers offers at -112 odds.
Pick: Nuggets +2.5 or better (-112, BetRivers)
