Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder (15-8) are 5.5-point underdogs against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (17-9) Saturday, December 16, 2023 at Ball Arena. The game starts at 9:00 PM ET on ALT. The matchup’s over/under is 236.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds

How to Bet on Nuggets vs. Thunder

Game Time and Information

Who Will Win Nuggets vs. Thunder?

Nuggets and Thunder Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Nuggets are 6-4-1 against the spread when favored by 5.5 points or more this season.

The Thunder are a perfect 1-0 against the spread when an underdog by 5.5 points or more this year.

The Nuggets and the Thunder combine to average 0.9 fewer points per game than the over/under of 236 set for this game.

Denver and Oklahoma City have seen its opponents average a combined 12.0 fewer points per game than the point total of 236 set in this matchup.

The average point total in Nuggets games this year is 10.9 fewer points than the total of 236 in this matchup.

The average point total for Oklahoma City this season is 2.0 points fewer than this game’s over/under.

Denver’s ATS record is 11-14-1 this season.

The Thunder’s ATS record is 15-7-1 this season.

Nuggets Stats & Insights

The Nuggets have a +107 scoring differential, topping opponents by 4.1 points per game. They’re putting up 114.6 points per game to rank 14th in the league and are giving up 110.5 per outing to rank seventh in the NBA.

The 44.5 rebounds per game the Nuggets average rank 11th in the NBA, and are 1.5 more than the 43.0 their opponents pull down per outing.

Denver makes 11.6 three-pointers per game (24th in the league) compared to its opponents’ 11.2. It shoots 36.8% from deep while its opponents hit 35.9% from long range.

The Nuggets rank ninth in the NBA with 118.3 points scored per 100 possessions, and 11th in the league defensively with 114.1 points conceded per 100 possessions.

So far in the 2023-24 campaign, the Nuggets are scoring 10.2 more points per home game on average than on the road (120.5 at home, 110.3 on the road), but are giving up 0.5 fewer points per home game compared to road games (110.2 at home, 110.7 on the road).

Thunder Stats & Insights

The Thunder are outscoring opponents by 7.0 points per game, with a +161 scoring differential overall. They put up 120.5 points per game (fifth in NBA) and give up 113.5 per contest (14th in league).

Oklahoma City is 26th in the league at 41.1 rebounds per game. That’s 5.7 fewer than the 46.8 its opponents average.

The Thunder make 12.8 three-pointers per game (13th in the league), while their opponents have made 13.7 on average.

The Thunder average 119.7 points per 100 possessions on offense (fifth in league), and allow 112.7 points per 100 possessions (seventh in NBA).

At home, Oklahoma City scores 123.8 points per game. On the road, it averages 116.9.

Nuggets Key Players to Watch

Jokic puts up 27.2 points and 12.7 rebounds and 9.4 assists per game.

Michael Porter Jr. leads active Nuggets in three-point shooting, making an average of 2.7 shots per game from beyond the arc.

Jokic picks up 1.2 takeaways per game, and Peyton Watson compiles 1.0 block per contest.

Thunder Key Players to Watch

The Thunder go-to guy, Gilgeous-Alexander, leads active Thunder players in both scoring (31.0 points per game) and assists (6.4 assists per game).

Chet Holmgren has per-game averages of 16.9 points, 2.4 assists and 8.0 rebounds this season.

Isaiah Joe averages 2.5 made threes per game.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s 2.7 steals and Holmgren’s 2.4 blocks per game are important to the Thunder’s defensive effort.

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