Nuggets vs Timberwolves NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

The Nuggets can almost taste a series win over the Timberwolves and the valuable rest days that will come with it. Nikola Jokic won't let Denver waste any time in Game 4, as our NBA betting picks illustrate.

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Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are rolling, and they go for a series sweep tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The Nuggets have looked like title contenders while jumping out to a 3-0 first-round lead, and they did just enough on Friday behind a Jokic triple-double and 25 points from Michael Porter Jr.

Anthony Edwards has done his best to keep the Timberwolves in this series, and he was unstoppable again in Game 3 with 36 points. But Minnesota couldn’t finish the job, losing 120-111. A difficult offseason awaits after going all-in with the Rudy Gobert trade.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 4 best odds

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 4 picks and predictions

It says a lot about the supporting cast that the Nuggets haven’t needed a monster stat line from Nikola Jokic to take control of this series. While the two-time MVP has still been the hub of the visitors’ offense, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. have been knocking down shots at such a rate that he’s been able to stay in playmaking mode.

But closeout games have a different energy, particularly with the Timberwolves in desperation mode in front of their own fans. Denver may well require a bigger scoring game from Jokic to get over the line in Game 4, and I expect him to deliver.

Sure, Jokic is only averaging 20 points a game in this series, and the scoring burden has been significantly reduced with Murray looking more like “Bubble Murray.” But he’s still the No. 1 option when Michael Malone’s men need a bucket.

The rebounds are going to be there for Jokic. Whether he’s guarding Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert, he’s going to be around the rim on both ends of the floor — and he’s had more than 10 rebounds in two of the three games in this series.

Jokic only attempted 13 shots on Friday, but I’m counting on more field goal attempts tonight (closer to the 19 he attempted in Game 2) and a ruthless approach to finishing off this series.

My best bet: Jokic Over 34.5 points + rebounds (-115)

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Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 4 spread analysis

With the Nuggets on a mission to end this series in four games and earn some valuable rest days, it’s no shock to see Denver as favorites, and the 3.5-point line may even be a little light. After surviving the play-in tournament, the Timberwolves have belatedly emerged in this series and Target Center should be rocking tonight, but Denver has been a step ahead over the first three games.

If you’re laying the points with the Nuggets, you probably feel pretty good about the way they waltzed into Minnesota and shot 57% on Friday. With Jokic pulling the strings, all five Denver starters scored in double-digits, and Bruce Brown had another effective game off the bench.

The Nuggets have been a steady ATS team all year (48-37-0 ATS), and the visitors have covered the spread in each of their last four games, as well as the past four meetings between these teams. Including this series, the Nuggets have won five of their last six contests against the Timberwolves.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 4 Over/Under analysis

The offenses have come to play in the past two games of this series, comfortably cashing in the Over. I expect more of the same here, with Anthony Edwards on a hot streak and Denver getting great looks from Jokic’s playmaking (12 assists on Friday).

Though the Timberwolves got big production from Edwards and Towns (27 points) in Game 3, their bench was outscored 29-10, and there’s really no papering over the absences of Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid against such a heavyweight opponent.

Yet the hosts still scored 111 points in what was a two-possession game midway through the fourth quarter — and it’s reasonable to think Kyle Anderson and Jaylen Nowell will be better tonight than their combined 1-for-13 dud on Friday.

Gobert’s defensive presence has done little to slow down the Nuggets, particularly in the last two games. Denver has reached the 120-point mark in both, and Porter Jr. is coming off his best game of the series. The Over is 8-2 in Minnesota’s last 10 games following a loss, and it’s 7-2-1 in the teams’ last 10 meetings. 

Nuggets vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a losing road record. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves.