Odds, Predictions for Team to Finish with the Fewest Wins
Our best NFL betting sites have already posted odds on the teams to finish with the best and worst record in the league in 2023. Here are our picks and predictions on who will finish with the worst regular-season record, based on the NFL odds.
The team to finish with the worst record in the league has been a profitable market in recent years. After a three-year run where the Cleveland Browns were the best of the worst, the Cincinnati Bengals finished with just two wins in 2019, the Jacksonville Jaguars then finished last in consecutive seasons, and the Chicago Bears took the mantle in 2022.
There are plenty of intriguing options for the last-place team in 2023.
Four of our NFL betting experts make their picks and predictions for who will finish with the worst regular-season record in 2023 (odds via our best sports betting apps).
NFL worst record odds 2023
NFL worst record picks
NFL worst record predictions 2023
Washington Commanders (+1300 via FanDuel)
You can crunch the numbers all you want to predict which team will end up with the worst record in the NFL, and power rating-wise, it's the Arizona Cardinals (+340). However, when it comes to actually finishing with the worst record, it's often a deliberate choice made by the organization. Besides, do you really think Cardinals rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon wants to purposefully tank in his first season? That's why I'd put my money on the Commanders (+1300). There's a clear reason why they didn't go after a starting quarterback in free agency or the 2023 NFL Draft, and that reason is Caleb Williams.
Not only is Williams considered a generational prospect at the quarterback position while having the shortest NFL draft odds to go No. 1 overall, but he's also from the Washington D.C. area, which creates the perfect conditions for a full-scale tanking strategy by the Commanders. They'll have new ownership before the season begins, and they could fire head coach Ron Rivera during the season and hand the reins to an assistant coach who's committed to tanking.
Furthermore, they can disguise their intention to tank by allowing fifth-round pick Sam Howell to "learn and grow" at quarterback. In a league where the success of a team heavily depends on the quality of its quarterback, drafting Williams would give the Commanders' new ownership team an immediate boost. All they need to do is lose intentionally. - Jon Metler
Houston Texans (+900 via FanDuel, BetMGM)
Because the Arizona Cardinals are such clear favorites in this market, we are actually getting a good price on most of the other bad teams. That includes the Houston Texans, who have won four or fewer games in each of the past three years. Houston finished bottom three in the league for three straight seasons.
This year’s Texans have a wide range of outcomes, and could easily clear their projected win total of 6.5. But we all need to acknowledge there is also an extremely low floor here, especially since this franchise will trot out a rookie head coach (DeMeco Ryans), rookie offensive play caller (Bobby Slowik), and rookie quarterback (C.J. Stroud) this year.
With a projection of about six wins, Houston might live to regret trading away a 2024 first rounder if it ends up being the No. 1 overall pick. For a price of 9/1, I certainly don’t mind rooting for that scenario. - Shane Jackson
Las Vegas Raiders (+1400 via BetMGM)
Super Bowl LVIII will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Vegas this season, and that's about as close as the Las Vegas Raiders will get to the game.
Concerns about the protective language in Jimmy Garoppolo's contract were overblown, but the reality is the injury-prone quarterback played only one 16-game season in six years with the San Francisco 49ers. Each of the last three campaigns was derailed by injuries to the veteran passer. And the Raiders' insurance plan is 37-year-old Brian Hoyer and fourth-round draft pick Aidan O'Connell. If Jimmy G goes down again, things could get ugly in a hurry.
Add to the mix that Vegas plays in the toughest division in football and that Josh McDaniels might not be able to cut it as a head coach. He owns a 17-28 career record in less than three seasons as the head man. He's sapped the Raiders of much of their talent and earned the ire of the team's best player, wideout Davante Adams, by cutting longtime QB Derek Carr. It could be a long year in Sin City. - Michael McClymont
Arizona Cardinals (+340 via FanDuel)
I tried hard to avoid picking up the fat piece of chalk, but it’s though to envision the Cardinals losing the race to the bottom.
The quarterback situation alone leaves an Everest-sized mountain to climb. Kyler Murray is progressing well from his torn ACL suffered in mid-December 2022. But he’ll likely miss games to begin the season, and the Cardinals will surely then be cautious as the losses pile up with a talent-poor roster.
Despite his accuracy issues, a healthy Murray alone could help the Cardinals stumble to the handful of wins needed to avoid finishing with the NFL's worst record. But Murray will probably miss a chunk of time and then surely deal with limited mobility upon his return. And his 36-year-old backup Colt McCoy is working through an injury of his own.
That could leave journeyman David Blough, Jeff Driskel, and rookie Clayton Tune in the quarterback room and playing with a supporting cast no longer featuring DeAndre Hopkins, and behind a still woeful offensive line that allowed 46 sacks in 2022.
For a more aggressive fade of the Cardinals, consider the +400 last winless team odds through DraftKings.
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