Oddsmakers Set Line On Shohei Ohtani Breaking AL Home Run Record

Los Angeles Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani is the runaway favorite to win the American League MVP. In fact, you’re unlikely to find odds on him winning MVP at this point because it’s essentially guaranteed.

However, you can still bet on his season-long outputs.

One gambling market asks bettors to predict whether Ohtani will fall Over or Under 62.5 homers. New York Yankees star and reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge hit 62 during his show-stopping 2022 campaign, the seventh-most in a season and fourth-most by any player.

It was also the American League record.

The second market is a “Yes” or “No” on whether Ohtani wins the batting Triple Crown. He is a sizable underdog on both the Over and Yes lines, but many games remain.

How Many Homers Will Shohei Ohtani Hit?

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.

• Ohtani regular-season HRs: Over 62.5 (+3000)
• Ohtani regular-season HRs: Under 62.5 (-20000)

Ohtani is enjoying the best offensive season of his career. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the year and demand a gargantuan contract from whichever team makes him their headliner for the next decade.

Ohtani has sat near or in the lead for home runs for most of the season. At the time of writing, he’s maintained a standard of roughly .35 home runs every game, or 3.5 homers per 10 outings. That puts him on pace for 57 home runs in a 162-game season, which would tie for 16th all-time.

A $100 bet would pay out $3,000 if Ohtani hits 63 homers, so the odds are very long.

Although the math works against him, the slugger has shown he can catch fire at the plate. He smacked 15 homers in 27 games in June, a return of .56 long balls per game.

That incredible statline put him on pace for 90 homers, though it was just for that month.

At the time of writing, the Angels had 12 series remaining in their season. Their opponents during the upcoming stretch have average ERAs of about 4.40. Those teams also give up an average of 1.18 home runs per outing, which would rank in the middle of the league.

The only players to hit at least 63 homers were Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire (3x) and Sammy Sosa (2x). Ohtani’s current pace for 57 would tie him with Alex Rodriguez (2002) and Luis Gonzalez (2001).

Injuries are always a concern with futures bets, but Ohtani has played in nearly every game. He also played in 157 in 2022, 155 in 2021 and has done a remarkable job keeping himself available despite simultaneously pitching (where he is eighth in ERA and fourth in K/9).

Bottom line: We don’t recommend a bet on Ohtani breaking the AL home run record at +3000 odds. That line implies a 3.2% chance he breaks Judge’s record, which appears quite high.

Ohtani MLB Triple Crown Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.

• Ohtani to win the Triple Crown: Yes (+1700)
• Ohtani to win the Triple Crown: No (-3500)

The other betting market deals with Ohtani’s chances to win the Triple Crown. To do that, he must lead the American League in batting average, home runs and RBIs.

This is less of a longshot than the AL dinger record.

Ten players have won 12 Triple Crowns since RBIs became a verified stat in 1920. Players used to have more success winning the Triple Crown, but it became rare recently. Miguel Cabrera (2012) is the only player who has pulled off the feat since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.

We should note that Ohtani’s three nearest competitors for the home run title are all in the National League, and he has a large lead on the AL’s second-best HR hitter.

He’s a near lock to have the most homers, but batting average and RBIs are questionable.

At the time of writing, he’s one of only four AL players hitting above .300. However, Ohtani’s .306 average trails far behind Yandy Diaz of the Tampa Bay Rays (.325).

Judge led the AL in RBIs during his 2022 season with 131, five clear of second-place Jose Ramirez. Ohtani could struggle here since his teammates have offensive woes, especially with Mike Trout headlining a group of injured players important to the Angels’ offense.

As of writing, Ohtani had 89 RBIs, four behind Adolis Garcia of the Texas Rangers.

Despite those concerns, Ohtani has kept himself attached to the AL leaders and is right in the mix for the lead. His ability to hit home runs will greatly influence his RBI total.

Bottom line: Ohtani’s Triple Crown market is more playable than his AL home run record market. While still not a recommended bet, it’s more reasonable for wagering a unit or two if you’re looking for a sweat on Ohtani’s historic 2023 campaign.

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images