Ole Miss vs. Penn State Prediction, Preview, and Odds

The Ole Miss Rebelsand Penn State Nittany Lionswill square off on Saturday in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA, is at noon ET.

Mississippi (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, and 5-7 O/U) beat rival Mississippi State in its regular season finale. The Rebels won seven of their last eight games.

Penn State (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS, and 6-6 O/U) won four of its last five games. Its only two losses were to Big Ten East division foes Michigan and Ohio State.

The Nittany Lions are 4.5-point spread favorites and the game total is 48.5 points.

Injury Report

Rebels: No injuries.

Nittany Lions: WR Harrison Wallace III (15 receptions for 161 yards) is questionable (arm).

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Rebels:

• TE Kyirin Heath (121 snaps)
• TE Michael Trigg (79 snaps)
• S Isheem Young (130 snaps)
• OLB Reginald Hughes (40 snaps)
• WR Bralon Brown (56 snaps)
• WR JJ Henry (24 snaps)
• OT Cedric Melton (27 snaps)
• Starting EDGE Cedric Johnson (526 snaps)

Nittany Lions:

• WR Cristian Driver (27 snaps)
• DE Chop Robinson (303 snaps)
• CB Johnny Dixon (497 snaps)

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The Rebels are building momentum

Mississippi has plenty of juice on the heels of a ten-win regular season, as it has landed several priority players in the transfer portal and has a top-25 recruiting class through the early signing period. Will it continue to build momentum with a Peach Bowl victory?

Ole Miss scored 34.8 points per game (20th) and averaged 455.6 total yards (16th) this season, including 276.6 passing yards (27th) and 179.0 rushing yards (42nd). It converted 34.0 percent of its third downs (103rd) and scored on 87.2 percent of its red zone trips (38th).

The Rebels surrendered 22.3 points (43rd) and 371.9 total yards (59th) per game, including 220.0 passing yards (60th) and 151.9 rushing yards (68th). They had 34 sacks and 12 interceptions this season. Mississippi's opponents converted 40.0 percent of their third-down attempts (74th) and scored on 84.2 percent of their red zone trips (74th).

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PSU boasts a top-25 run game

The Nittany Lions fell short of expectations this season, failing to break through the Ohio State and Michigan wall to claim the Big Ten crown. With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams next season, PSU will have a better shot at making the field, but it's clear there's still work to be done in Happy Valley.

Penn State scored 37.2 points per game (12th) and averaged 391.0 total yards (62nd) this season, including 204.3 passing yards (93rd) and 186.7 rushing yards (25th). It converted 39.1 percent of its third downs (63rd) and scored on 94.3 percent of its red zone trips (5th).

The Nittany Lions gave up 11.4 points (3rd) and 223.3 total yards (1st) per game, including 153.6 passing yards (3rd) and 69.7 rushing yards (3rd). They accumulated 49 sacks and 12 interceptions this season. Penn State's opponents converted 30.0 percent of their third downs (10th) and scored on 90.0 percent of their red zone trips (113th).

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Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Ole Miss deserves more credit for its play and I'm not sold on Penn State against a top-tier opponent, especially without top pass rusher Chop Robinson and, likey, its top offensive lineman, Olu Fashanu. The Rebels' offense was well-balanced this season and should cause issues for the Nittany Lions, who didn't prove they were in the discussion of elite programs vs. Michigan and Ohio State. Their QB, in particular, fell short against the Wolverines (10-for-22 passing for 70 yards) and Buckeyes (18-for-42 passing for 191 yards). PSU scored a total of 27 points in those games.

Penn State's defense was special this season, but it's playing without its defensive coordinator. That's going to be challenging against Ole Miss' explosive offense. Rebels QB Jaxson Dart has had success against elite defenses in the past and RB Quinshon Judkins has rushed for 2,619 yards and 31 TDs over the past two seasons.

At +4.5, I'm taking the Rebels' side in the Peach Bowl.

Prediction: Rebels +4.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Betting Trend: The over is 6-2 in head coach James Franklin's eight bowl games at Penn State.

I'm placing a wager on the over at 48.5 total points. The Lions' offense may not explode for 30 points, but it should have some success against the Rebels. Ole Miss isn't stout against the run and ranked 52nd nationally in EPA per play allowed, which should take some pressure off of Lions QB Drew Allar. PSU has a talented backfield and I'm sure it will be eager to prove it against an SEC defense.

The Rebels will pass and run the football consistently, finishing their red zone drives with points. Head coach Lane Kiffin's teams don't usually disappoint when it comes to scoring, and I'm confident the Rebels will continue that trend against Penn State.

Prediction: Over 48.5

Mike Briggs is a passionate sports fan and writer, earning his B.A. in Journalism. In 2020, he moved across the country from New Jersey to San Diego to satisfy his lifelong obsession of living near an MLB stadium. As a proud MSU basketball supporter, Mike believes he's learned a lot watching coach Tom Izzo lead the Spartans to Big Ten titles and Final Fours regularly. He's also well-read on the NBA, having a subscription to SLAM magazine, the famed "basketball bible," since he was a teenager. Mike spends his free time strategizing futures bets and researching opportunities to make a few bucks on tonight's game. You can follow Mike on Twitter @BriggsWrites for sports betting, DFS, and stock trading tips.