Peach Bowl: Penn State vs. Ole Miss Expert Score Predictions

ATLANTA — No. 10 Penn State puts the wraps on its 2023 season when it faces No. 11 Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl here Saturday. These are the Lions247 Expert Score Predictions for the game, which is slated to kick off at noon Eastern and be carried by ESPN.

As of Dec. 21, our friends at Caesars Sportsbook had the Nittany Lions as 4.0-point favorites. The over/under was 48.5. While those numbers may change, they are what we will use for the sake of the competition.

Our popular game-week picks panel includes the four Lions247 full-time staffers, former Penn State All-Big Ten offensive tackle Keith “Goon” Conlin, special guest Ed001, and many of the long-time site contributors who help moderate the boards and/or contribute content to Lions247.

This year, we are adding 247Sports national recruiting expert Brian Dohn to the panel. Also, we’re going to include a prediction from a writer who covers each week’s PSU opponent, getting help from our 247Sports sister sites when possible.

As always, your feedback on our predictions is not only welcomed, but also encouraged. But remember, if you disagree with something you see, just don’t say that you have a different opinion, but please let us know what it is.

And, of course, we want to see your prediction as well. So please join in.

STAFF

MARK BRENNAN (Lions247 Staff)

Not knowing the final call on who is and is not playing in this game makes our predictions more challenging and more fun. So I’m going to focus less on specific players and more on what these two teams brought to the table in their respective games that mattered most this season — Ohio State and Michigan for Penn State, and Alabama and Georgia for Ole Miss. All were losses.

But Penn State was not overmatched by the Buckeyes or Wolverines, especially defensively. The Nittany Lions held the current No. 7 and No. 1 teams to a TOTAL of 44 points — for an average of 22. And that’s a big reason Manny Diaz is now the head coach at Duke. Now let’s flip that. As effective as the Rebel offense was at times this season, it scored a TOTAL of 27 points against the now-No. 4 Crimson Tide and now-No. 6 Bulldogs. This while surrendering a total of 76 points.

I don’t see either team going nuts offensively in this game, which will ultimately factor the better defensive squad.

BOLD PREDICTION: After Ohio State kicker Noah Ruggles’ missed 50-yard field goal resulted in the Buckeyes’ 42-41 loss to Georgia in a CFP semifinal here last season, Penn State’s Alex Felkins gains a small measure of revenge for the Big Ten versus the SEC. He’ll (at least) tie the Peach Bowl record with a 53-yarder.

PREDICTION: Penn State 24, Ole Miss 17 (PSU -7, 41 total)

TYLER DONOHUE (Lions247 Staff)

A pair of 10-win teams matching up with limited opt-out impact and an opportunity to enter 2024 with momentum and a top-10 ranking? In today’s era of non-CFP bowl realities, we’ll certainly sign up for this one, and I’m betting both programs will look the part of invested competitors.

It’s fair to expect at least a slight slip for Penn State on defense based on what’s occurred since Black Friday, but this remains a motivated and confident bunch. Ultimately, I think that leads to a series of hits on Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart and eventually a timely turnover that gives Penn State’s offense a short field. Look for Abdul Carter to build on a big November.

I’m leaning toward the Lions giving their ground game a real chance to flourish, but a pretty performance from Drew Allar will be the top takeaway for PSU fans turning attention to next season. Unlike Dart, he avoids the costly turnover, and a touchdown toss to Theo Johnson sends the tight end out in style.

BOLD PREDICTION: Alex Felkins finishes his fantastic one-and-done Penn State campaign with a perfect performance that features three field goal conversions, including a PSU career-long from 50-plus yards and another that helps the Lions gain late breathing room.

PREDICTION: Penn State 30, Ole Miss 23 (PSU -7, 53 total)

DANIEL GALLEN (Lions247 Staff)

Ole Miss reminds me a little bit of where Penn State was entering the Rose Bowl last year: At the end of a solid season with losses to the two best teams on its schedule. Key players have already said they’re coming back for next season. There are exciting pieces ready to join the roster or take on larger roles. There are already high expectations for the next season. Last year, Penn State channeled that into an impressive win over Utah in Pasadena.

But is Ole Miss already heavily into 2024 while 2023 still needs to be finished out? The Rebels have been one of the biggest players nationally in the transfer portal, and it has them set up to be a big player next season. There’s still one more game left in this campaign, though.

Penn State appears to be in good shape entering the Peach Bowl. A huge run of opt-outs never came, and it appears that the players who are moving on to the NFL will at least play some sort of role. What that looks like will remain to be seen, especially for players like offensive lineman Olu Fashanu and cornerback Kalen King. But the Nittany Lions roster is intact.

I think Penn State is in good shape against Ole Miss, but I think the Rebels will make it interesting for the Nittany Lions. Saturday’s win won’t come and go without any angst. But even without coordinator Manny Diaz, I think the Penn State defense should be in good shape in Anthony Poindexter’s hands, and there’s still going to be plenty of talent on that side of the ball. And that group should make life hard enough for Jaxson Dart and Quinshon Judkins.

If these two teams meet next year in the expanded College Football Playoff, that might be a little different. But right now, I like Penn State more, even if Ole Miss is poised to make it close.

BOLD PREDICTION: The difference in the game is a punt return touchdown by cornerback Daequan Hardy, who is playing his final game as a Nittany Lion.

PREDICTION: Penn State 28, Ole Miss 27 (PSU -1, 55 total)

TYLER CALVARUSO (Lions247 Recruiting Expert)

I like Penn State's chances of ending the 2023 season with a Peach Bowl win, but I don't think it'll come easily. It'll be interesting to see if or how the difference in the style of play of the two teams impacts the game, but the Nittany Lions have what it takes defensively to slow the Rebels down. The X-Factor, for me, will be Penn State's defensive front. Chop Robinson won't be out there for the Nittany Lions, but the group still should make life difficult for Ole Miss.

PREDICTION: Penn State 30, Ole Miss 28 (PSU -2, 58 total)

BRIAN DOHN (247Sports National Recruiting Expert)

One of the more interesting postseason matchups comes in the Peach Bowl, and both teams are very good. Ole Miss' losses came to Alabama and Georgia. Penn State lost to Michigan and Ohio State, and if this was the expanded playoff, both would have strong cases to be in it.

For me, it comes down to whether Penn State can slow down Ole Miss quarterback Jackson Dart, who completes 65.4 percent of his passes, and has 2,985 passing yards and 20 touchdowns to go with 377 rushing yards.

Not having Chop Robinson (opt out) is big when it comes to getting pressure, but there is still plenty of talent on the Nittany Lions' defense. The line of scrimmage will be physical, which should make for a fun watch. For all the grief coach James Franklin sometimes gets, Penn State is 21-4 in the last two seasons.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27, Ole Miss 24 (PSU -3, 51 total)

COMMENT: Penn State will be without question one of the best teams Ole Miss has faced this season and definitely one of the most well-rounded across the board. Even without some significant missing pieces from staff and player personnel, the Lions are going to give Ole Miss all they can handle and then some.

This game is going to be won on the line of scrimmage, plain and simple. If Ole Miss can establish a balanced attack and stay on schedule, this is its game to lose. I think even without Cedric Johnson, Ole Miss' defensive line can have success, that unit just being so deep with fresh and quality bodies. This game is about who plays smarter too. Both teams take good care of the football, and I have to say the team with the most turnovers will likely be toast.

I can see this final score prediction go either way, but I'm picking Ole Miss for this one. This just seems like the perfect storm for this football program. It has the chance to finally win an 11th game and just the way this team has won games all year long late in games.

But, this is why we play the games. I think Penn State might be the better team in quite a few areas, but this is pure gut on my part. I'll trust my gut.

PREDICTION: Ole Miss 24, Penn State 20 (MISS -4, 44 total)

CONTRIBUTORS

KEITH “GOON” CONLIN (Former Player)

PSU takes the Peach to become the first school to ever win all six major bowls. Impressive. More impressive is that James Franklin will have four majors under his belt!!!! Defense rules the day and dominates the Rebels, and the PSU offense runs the ball well and exploits the play-action long ball to perfection. Let's gooooo!

PREDICTION: Penn State 38, Ole Miss 14 (PSU -24, 52 total)

ED001 (Special Guest)

Penn State will attempt to win another New Year’s 6 bowl game in Atlanta against Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss squad. Kiffin led the Rebels to a 10-2 record featuring a high-scoring offense. James Franklin’s Lions got better offensively after the firing of Mike Yurcich. Look for them to run the ball effectively and mix in play-action passes to keep the Rebel D off balance. Penn State defense continues to be stout and young players get in on the action to help frustrate Kiffin’s offense. The Lions win going away.

PREDICTION: Penn State 35, Ole Miss 21 (PSU -14, 56 total)

MARK HARRINGTON (PlaybookMark)

The title fight in this game will be Penn State’s defense against the Ole Miss offense. The Lions should be able to fill in for the departed Chop Robinson if the play-calling continues where Manny Diaz left off. Offensively, Penn State is facing an Ole Miss defense that has had its struggles, so the question is how the offensive line plays and creates holes for the ground game and opportunities for the air attack. On the whole, if Penn State continues to protect the ball and share it among its playmakers, it should be able to sustain drives and put up points.

PREDICTION: Penn State 31, Ole Miss 24 (PSU -7, 55 total)

SCOTT COLE (Psu96)

It's difficult to know what to expect from Penn State in the Peach Bowl, especially on defense as a number of starters have either opted out or could be on a light snap count. At full strength, I think Penn State would be able to hold the Ole Miss offense in check enough to win the game. I am much less certain under the actual circumstances. The best path to a win in my eyes is to lean on Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton to keep the chains moving, shorten the game, and minimize the opportunities for Jaxson Dart and the Rebel offense. Penn State does just enough to get the victory as Alex Felkins hits a walk-off game winner.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27, Ole Miss 24 (PSU -3, 51 total)

TOM HOFFMAN (underscoreTom)

Bowls are always tricky with opt outs, both physical and mental.  Penn State started to find its offensive groove post-Yurcich as the season came to a close. Ole Miss has given up a lot of points this year to the better teams on its schedule. Even with a handful of defensive opt outs for Penn State, I think they still have enough.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27, Ole Miss 20 (PSU -7, 47 total)

DONOVAN NEAL (PSUMtnBike)

Mississippi has faced two really good defenses with personnel equivalent to the Nittany Lions, and its offense sputtered in those games.Even without Chop Robinson and Manny Diaz, I expect Penn State to give the talented Ole Miss offense all it can handle.

PREDICTION: Penn State 31, Ole Miss 17 (PSU -14, 48 total)

NIRAV DALAL (PlaybookNirav)

Penn State goes for another 11-win season and a Peach Bowl title while Ole Miss is after its first 11-win campaign. This is a great matchup and I think the key factor is which team’s sophomore sensation running back makes the most plays. Quinshon Judkins is a really good RB and he hit his groove late in the season, but I think he struggles against a PSU front seven that collectively is one of the best in college football.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27, Ole Miss 20 (PSU -7, 47 total)

ROB RIVA (rriva)

Vegas likes Penn State by a smidge and so do I. This game comes down to which team has a better defense and I don’t think it’s particularly close which squad fits that bill.

PREDICTION: Penn State 33, Ole Miss 27 (PSU -6, 60 total)

RECAP

LIONS247 / 247SPORTS STAFF

BRENNAN: Penn State 24, Ole Miss 17 (PSU -7, 41 total)

DONOHUE: Penn State 30, Ole Miss 23 (PSU -7, 53 total)

GALLEN: Penn State 28, Ole Miss 27 (PSU -1, 55 total)

CALVARUSO: Penn State 30, Ole Miss 28 (PSU -2, 58 total)

DOHN: Penn State 27, Ole Miss 24 (PSU -3, 51 total)

REDDING: Ole Miss 24, Penn State 20 (MISS -4, 44 total)

STAFF AVERAGES: Penn State 26.5, Ole Miss 23.8 (PSU -2.7, 50.3 total)

CONTRIBUTORS

GOON: Penn State 38, Ole Miss 14 (PSU -24, 52 total)

ED: Penn State 35, Ole Miss 21 (PSU -14, 56 total)

HARRINGTON: Penn State 31, Ole Miss 24 (PSU -7, 55 total)

COLE: Penn State 27, Ole Miss 24 (PSU -3, 51 total)

HOFFMAN: Penn State 27, Ole Miss 20 (PSU -7, 47 total)

NEAL: Penn State 31, Ole Miss 17 (PSU -14,

DALAL: Penn State 27, Ole Miss 20 (PSU -7, 47 total)

RIVA: Penn State 33, Ole Miss 27 (OSU -6, 60 total)

CONTRIBUTOR AVERAGES: Penn State 31.1, Ole Miss State 20.9 (PSU -10.2, 52 total)

OVERALL AVERAGES: Penn State 29.1, Ole Miss 22.1 (PSU -7.0, 51.2 total total)

FAST FACTS

Picked Penn State: Everybody except Redding

Picked Ole Miss: Redding

Widest Margin For Penn State: Goon (PSU -24)

Caesars Sportsbook Line (Dec. 21): Penn State -4.0

Picked Penn State To Cover: Brennan, Donohue, Goon, Ed, Harrington, Hoffman, Neal, Dalal, Riva

Picked Penn State NOT To Cover: Gallen, Calvaruso, Dohn, Cole

Push: Redding

Caesars Sportsbook Total (Dec. 21): 42.5

Highest Total: Calvaruso (58)

Lowest Total: Brennan (41)

Over: Everybody except Brennan

Under: Brennan

Push: NA

Caesars Sportsbook Line (Nov. 20): Penn State -21.0

Actual Spread: Penn State 42, Michigan State 0 (PSU -42)

Winners Against The Spread: Donohue, Gallen, Goon, Neal, Dalal

Losers Against The Spread: Brennan, Calvaruso, Dohn, Brooks, Harrington, Cole, Hoffman, Riva

Push: NA

Caesars Sportsbook Total (Nov. 14): 41.5

Actual Total: 33 (Under)

Winners Against The Total: Calvaruso, Brooks, Goon, Harrington, Hoffman, Neal

Losers Against The Total: Brennan, Donohue, Gallen, Dohn, Ed, Cole, Dalal, Riva

Push: NA

STANDINGS

MONEY LINE (ALPHABETICAL)

Dohn: 12-0

Hoffman: 12-0

Brennan: 11-1

Calvaruso: 11-1

Cole: 11-1

Dalal: 11-1

Donohue: 11-1

Harrington: 11-1

Neal: 11-1

Riva: 11-1

Visiting Media: 11-1

Ed: 10-2

Gallen: 10-2

Goon: 10-2

AGAINST THE SPREAD (ALPHABETICAL)