One year after predicting disaster, Las Vegas finds love for Guardians

The Guardians aren’t going to sneak up on any of their opponents after winning 92 games last season, and they aren’t going to sneak up on Las Vegas again, either. And since gambling became legal in Ohio in January, plenty of money might be wagered on the G-men by bettors with hopes of a bountiful return.

Last year the only thing the oddsmakers couldn’t agree on was which team would finish last in the American League Central Division — the Guardians or Royals. It turned out the Royals did. They finished 65-97 — 27 games behind the first place Guardians.

The most significant change to the Guardians’ 26-man roster this year is the addition of first baseman/designated hitter Josh Bell. Yet in numbers released March 26 on thelines.com, the Guardians are given the best odds of the five teams in the Central Division to win the World Series at plus-3000 at Caesars sportsbook. That means a person placing a $100 bet on the Guardians would net $3,100 if they won the World Series.

The projection could be viewed as an indictment on the Twins, White Sox, Tigers and Royals more than a show of faith in the Guards because 11 teams are given better odds to be crowned champions, led by the defending champion Houston Astros at plus-600.

The Yankees are second at plus-750 followed by the Dodgers at plus-800. Two weeks ago, the New York Mets listed at plus-750, as the Yankees still are, but those odds were posted before Mets’ dynamic closer Edwin Diaz suffered a torn patella tendon during a celebration March 15 while playing for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. Now the Mets are are tied with the Padres for the fifth-best odds at plus-900.

The White Sox are a notch below the Guardians at plus-3300 at Caesars Sportsbook. The Twins are plus-4000.

BetMGM has the Guardians at plus-125 to win the Central Division.

Betonline.ag has a simple wager for every team — whether each will make the playoffs. The betonline site is so confident the Guardians will be in the postseason that a person would have to bet $150 to win $100 (and get the $150 back).

Matt Johnson of sportsnaut.com is bucking conventional thought. Johnson in a story published March 24 picked the Twins to win the Central

“Injuries have played a significant role in the Minnesota Twins missing the playoffs each of the past two seasons,” Johnson wrote. “Considering the lineup is led by Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, durability and upside are just the theme in Minnesota. It’s the same for the pitching staff, with Pablo López, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray all high-end starters when healthy, but that’s far from a guarantee.

“With that said, the talent in the everyday lineup and in the bullpen is undeniable. Minnesota can win the division and it’s worth betting on them in 2023 because of the wealth of bats and pitching.”

Johnson left himself some wriggle room in his analysis of the Guardians.

“The Cleveland Guardians are never going to make the aggressive moves necessary to win a World Series in today’s era of baseball,” he wrote. “However, their scouting and development give them a shot for a winning record every season. José Ramirez will be an MVP candidate once again, with Amed Rosario and Andrés Gimenez providing outstanding complementary pieces around him.

“If Steven Kwan repeats his success from the 2022 season and Cleveland gets full seasons from Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale, then the Guardians win the AL Central.”

Matt Snyder of CBS Sports bluntly declared the A.L. Central to be “the worst division in baseball,” but he gave the Guardians a lukewarm endorsement to win it.

“The Guardians were 45-41 outside the division last season, but thanks to dominating the AL Central, they won 92 games,” Snyder wrote. “By no means is four games over .500 a bad record, but they played like an 85-win team outside the division and they won this thing by 11 games. For the millionth time, it’s a different year and things will change, but there hasn’t been substantial enough movement to believe things are going to change all that much.”

Teams will play divisional opponents 13 times instead of 19 times in 2023 and going forward. Teams now play every team in the both leagues. The Guardians were 47-29 in the Central Division last year.

“In glancing around at the projection systems and just using my eye test/gut feeling, the conclusion is we’ll be hard pressed to see a 90-win team here and it’s possible a win total in the mid-80s takes it,” Snyder continued. “Not only that, but there appear to be two terrible teams (Tigers and Royals) and while the White Sox have plenty of potential, their lack of depth makes it look like there’s a chance they will bottom out. … The A.L. Central is the worst division in baseball.”

One more: USA today had this to say about the Guardians — “Are the Guardians quietly building a post-Lindor mini-dynasty? Seems like it, as they embark on a two-year window in which Shane Bieber will still front their rotation.”

A six-person panel at USA Today has the Guardians finishing 89-73 — eight games ahead of the Twins and White Sox — and winning the division title.