Orioles-Yankees prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, July 3

The Baltimore Orioles take on the New York Yankees in the first game of a three-game series on Monday, July 3. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium. Breakout righty Tyler Wells (6-4, 3.21 ERA) will take the mound for the Orioles, while Domingo German (5-5, 4.54 ERA) will pitch for the Yankees in his first start since spinning a perfect game last week.

This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Baltimore at -115 and New York coming in at -105. The total is set at 8.5.

Orioles-Yankees picks: Monday, July 3

Injury report

Yankees

Out: OF Aaron Judge (toe), RP Jonathan Loaisiga (elbow), RP Ryan Weber (forearm), OF Greg Allen (hip), DH Willie Calhoun (quad)

Orioles

Day to day: OF Austin Hays (hip)
Out: RP Mychal Givens (shoulder), RP Dillon Tate (forearm), RP Keegan Akin (back), C James McCann (ankle), RP Austin Voth (elbow), SP John Means (elbow), 1B Ryan Mountcastle (illness)

Starting pitchers

Tyler Wells vs. Domingo German

Wells has been the unlikely leader of the O’s rotation this year. The righty made five starts in June, lasting between five and 6.2 innings in each of them while allowing exactly two earned runs in every single one. Wells kept his strikeout numbers high, recording seven or more in three of the five games. However, he struggled against the Yankees the last time he faced them, letting up five runs in five innings.

German’s latest was a perfect game against Oakland, a much-needed bounce back after his two starts before that. The righty had lasted just 5.1 innings over those previous two starts and allowed 15 earned runs in that time frame. He has been up and down this season, but when he’s on, his curveball makes him as tough as anyone.

Over/Under pick

The Orioles haven’t been adding much to the team total lately, and if German doesn’t revert to his pre-perfecto trends, then we can expect that to continue. Wells occasionally struggles on the road, but he and the Baltimore bullpen should be able to limit the New York lineup that’s struggled so mightily without Aaron Judge.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

The Orioles struggled in their latest series, putting up just three runs over three games against the Twins. Those offensive issues won’t look great against a pitcher coming off the momentum of a perfect game — that is, if German can keep that going. Wells could go ahead and allow just one or two runs, and the Orioles have a solid bullpen this year, but without any run support, I have to go with the Yankees at home.