Our Best Bets for April 4

Deandre Ayton gets his crack at the freefalling, brick-laying Spurs tonight. See how our NBA player prop picks are targeting the Suns' man in the middle to produce against a depleted Alamo interior.

After a blank slate on Monday, the NBA is back with a bang Tuesday and has 13 contests to wager on.

The regular season is slimming by the minute and basketball bettors have a ton of hoops to jump through beyond just tackling the nightly odds. Teams have mixed motivations, players are in and out, and coaches are kicking the tires on their rotations, either planning for the postseason or looking ahead to next year.

I do my best to navigate a tricky Tuesday night in the Association and give my favorite NBA player prop picks and predictions for April 4.

NBA player props for April 4

Picks made on 4/4/2023 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Mess with the Bull

The Chicago Bulls are pretty much locked into the Eastern Conference play-in tournament and sit 10th in the standings heading into tonight’s important matchup with the Atlanta Hawks.

While Chicago can’t crack the Top 6, it can improve its standing in the play-in seeding and snatch homecourt for those qualification games. That ups the intensity for Tuesday and has me looking at DeMar DeRozan to come up big for the Bulls.

DeRozan is coming off a 31-point performance in a win over Memphis on Sunday and has a point prop of 24.5 (Over -120) for tonight’s home date with the Hawks. I have DeRozan to go for at 25.5 with some player projections as high as 26.7 points, which is understandable considering the quality of opponent tonight.

Atlanta is 27th in defensive rating since the All-Star break and has been roughed up by DeRozan already this season. DeMar dropped 26 points on the Hawks back in January (11 for 21), had 28 versus Atlanta on December 21 (12 for 23), and put up 34 in overtime in the ATL on Dec. 11.

DeRozan has shown another gear in clutch showdowns during his career and tonight’s tilt at home with have similar intensity and importance. This prop is starting to tick upward with the juice rising and spots like FanDuel even jumping from an opener of 24.5 to 25.5 O/U.

DeMar DeRozan prop: Over 24.5 Points (-120)

Down On Dinwiddie

Brooklyn Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie has been wheeling and dealing since coming over from Dallas in the Kyrie Irving trade, and has really found his place in this offense.

He averaged 9.7 assists in March and has recorded 35 total dimes in the past three games. However, that recent boom in assists came against the likes of Houston, Atlanta, and Utah — all of which rank near the bottom of the league in defense.

Brooklyn had bigger game totals in those contests, with closing numbers of 230, 230.5, and 240 points, and averaged more than 119 points in that span — a jump from the team’s average output of less than 113 points per game since swapping out Irving and Kevin Durant.

Tonight’s Over/Under against the Minnesota Timberwolves sits at 224.5 and the Nets face a T-Wolves defense that has looked sharp since returning many key players the past five games (109.6 defensive rating).

Dinwiddie’s assist prop for Tuesday is at 9.5 (Under -125) after he handed out a dozen dimes in each of the past two games. But given the lower total, stronger opponent, and pace of play expected, I have Dinwiddie projected for just less than eight assists tonight.

Spencer Dinwiddie prop: Under 9.5 Assists (-125)

Double-Dip For Deandre

The Phoenix Suns host the San Antonio Spurs as 19-point favorites tonight. As it stands, that spread is tied with two others as the biggest pile of chalk so far this NBA season.

The Suns are huge faves for a reason, with the Spurs in full tank mode and likely sitting another slew of key players Tuesday. That includes starting center Zach Collins and pretty much every member of the frontcourt.

This is great spot for Phoenix center Deandre Ayton to find his form after slowly working his way back from a hip injury the past few games. Ayton’s production has been hindered in those last four outings, but the big man is starting to pick it up.

He played 31 minutes and recorded 19 points and 11 rebounds in Sunday’s win over Oklahoma City and is listed at -110 odds to record another double-double against San Antonio tonight.

Ayton has a point prop of 15.5 O/U, which is attainable considering the competition, but the spread tells us this will be a blowout, and the Suns could sit their starters in the second half. That could prevent Ayton from getting 16 or more points.

But we do know that with a total of 235.5 points, both teams will be firing up shots and Ayton has been active on the glass with 21 rebounds in his last two games. His rebounding prop is 10.5 (Over +110), and I have him projected to pull down 10.7 rebounds against a Spurs team ranked 23rd in rebound rate since the All-Star break (along with a depleted frontcourt).

Ayton is tied for 10th in total double-doubles on the season with 35, one of which came against the Spurs back in December. I like him to anchor the inside tonight with at least 10 points and 10 rebounds.

Deandre Ayton prop: Record a double-double (-110)