Our PGA expert's best bets to win and place

There’s no rest for the weary on the PGA TOUR. One week removed from the U.S. Open, we have another designated event on the PGA TOUR schedule. The Travelers Championship has been played at TPC River Highlands since 1984. Boosted by a $20 million purse, the tournament has always attracted a stellar field. One hundred and fifty-six are in Cromwell, Connecticut preparing for the opportunity to get inside the top 65 (and ties) and play the weekend.

Everyone available in the top 10 of the OWGR is in attendance, along with 31 of the top 40. The forecast across the country is vastly different from what we experienced in Los Angeles. Temperatures are predicted to rest in the low 80s, and the breeze will be quite calm at around 10-12 miles per hour. Rain is in the forecast for Friday through Sunday, with a solid 50 percent chance of getting wet. Connecticut has been quite dry in June, only receiving a little over a half-inch of rain this month.

The course can take some water, but the inconvenience of rain gear and umbrellas should be taken into account for any player's game plan. But the weather isn’t the only drastic difference from last week. Each course plays to a par 70, but the skills required to score on each venue are considerably different.

Let's take a look at the odds for the 2023 Travelers Championship, discuss the course and tournament in a little more detail, and then get to our best bets and top props.

Travelers Championship 2023: Live Outright Odds

Travelers Championship 2023: Another par-70?

I have heard many call Los Angeles Country Club quirky. I liked the golf course, but I will admit the layout was unique. TPC River Highlands possesses a more standard par-70 scorecard. There are two par-5s, four par-3s, and 12 par-4s. The course stretches to 6,852 yards, 600 less than the North Course of LACC. The second-shortest course on the PGA TOUR, TPC River Highlands has 10 par-4s under 450 yards.

Players will play more for position across Pete Dye’s design. Similar to Harbour Town or other positional layouts, the field must remain safe off the tee. This course is the seventh-toughest test on TOUR from the rough. Due to the overall shorter course length, there should be a penalty for missing the fairway. One cannot miss too often, as scoring is another tremendous turn from last week’s test.

The average winning score over the last five years at the Travelers is 17 under par. If you plan on contending, you must be able to score on a course with only two par-5s. That sounds simple enough with so many short holes, but attacking any Dye layout requires careful risk/reward tactics. Water comes into play on five holes, and 69 bunkers decorate the 18 holes.

Pete Dye has always provided choices to the players. The best angle to attack each hole off the tee always takes on the most risk. TPC River Highlands is classic Dye architecture. Pete places a high value on position, and if you want to win your weekend wagers, you better choose players who value the same philosophy.

Travelers Championship 2023: Target practice

You will need 20 birdies to win this week. Based upon the blueprint of this course, accruing all of those sub-par holes requires a very simple game plan. The first step is finding the fairway. The field favors accuracy over length at the Travelers. The average driving distance falls under the TOUR average (280 versus 283), while driving accuracy is well above (68% versus 62%). Most players will end up in the same positions after the tee shot.

Fifty percent of the approach shots the field will encounter fall between 125-175 yards. You have to be great with a scoring iron in your hand to separate yourself. Proximity from this range reigns, and those who can take advantage of softer/wet conditions due to the forecast will have an edge. The best with a wedge in the field are Jon Rahm, Ben Martin, Tom Kim, Charley Hoffman, and Scottie Scheffler.

Proximity to the hole differentiates the birdie chances. Hitting it inside 15-20 feet on approach is essential to Sunday success. It sounds easy, considering the difficulty these guys faced last week in Los Angeles. But not every player can control the spin and trajectory needed to get it close on these smaller-than-average greens (5,000 sq/ft).

Once they do knock it close, can they fill the cup with the putt? After careful research, when you combine the two skills only two players are ranked in the top 15 in the field for creating those 15-foot birdie chances and strokes gained putting. The first is U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark. The second? Keep reading to find out.

Travelers Championship 2023: Best Bets

Best bet to win: Patrick Cantlay (+1200 on BetMGM)

One player built to play positional golf courses is Patrick Cantlay. His career history at Harbour Town and Pebble Beach are well documented. He ranks in the top 15 in creating scoring opportunities and cashing in with the putter. A perfect compliment for this course, Cantlay is also ranked second off the tee and eighth in par-4 scoring. With no wins to his name in 2023, I think this traveler will be heavily motivated to acquire that trophy come Sunday.

Best bet to finish in the Top 5: Scottie Scheffler (+160 on DraftKings)

Scottie Scheffler has finished in the top five in five straight starts. It has been two months since he has finished outside the top five on TOUR and he has eight top-5 finishes in 13 starts this year. The putter may hold him back from winning, but it won’t stop this streak of top-5 finishes at the Travelers.

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Tommy Fleetwood (+140 on DraftKings)

Speaking of top-5 finishes, Tommy Fleetwood has finished within the top five in three of his last five starts. His 63 on Sunday at LACC caught my attention, and gives us every reason to believe he remains in exceptional form. He’s gaining equally off the tee, on approach, and with the putter — a perfect combination to contend in Connecticut.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Travelers winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 16 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, .