Best bets for the PGA Wyndham Championship
Wyndham Championship
Lee Hodges, a pre-tournament price of 80-1, won the 3M Open wire-to-wire last weekend for his first career PGA Tour victory. Hodges shot 24 under (260) for a seven-shot victory over J.T. Poston, Kevin Streelman and Martin Laird. The seven-shot margin was the largest on the PGA Tour since Dustin Johnson won the 2020 FedEx St. Jude Championship by 11 strokes. Hodges moves up to 33rd on the FedEx Cup standings and to No. 54 in the Official World Golf Rankings and earns a spot in next year's Masters plus a two-year PGA Tour exemption.
With the clinching of his spot in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, Hodges withdrew from this week's Wyndham Championship. This week’s event in Greensboro, N.C., is the final chance for players to play their way into the top 70 to make the playoffs starting next week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis.
Tom Kim will not defend his Wyndham title as he withdrew last week with an ankle injury. Fellow South Korean Sungjae Im, who finished runner-up last year, is the 20-1 co-favorite along with Hideki Matsuyama.
Russell Henley (22-1) has finished in the top 10 here each of the last three years. Also at 22-1 is Sam Burns, who is the highest-ranked player in the OWGR (20th) and FedEx Cup standings (19th) in this field.
Si Woo Kim (25-1) won the Wyndham in 2016 and has three other top-5 finishes (2019-2021) here.
Shane Lowry (33-1) and Adam Scott (35-1), who lost in a six-way playoff here two years ago, are both just outside the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings (Lowry 76, Scott 81) as is Justin Thomas (35-1), who sits 79th.
Denny McCarthy (35-1) has been knocking on the door to earn his first PGA Tour win with a runner-up in June at the Memorial and four other top-10 finishes in 2023.
Poston (40-1) went with an aggressive approach on 18 attempting to make eagle and put pressure on Hodges but ended up making triple bogey and costing himself $260,000 and 90 FedEx Cup points. The 2019 Wyndham winner now comes into this week 49th in the FedEx Cup standings instead of 38th.
The Event
The Wyndham Championship was established in 1938 as the Greater Greensboro Open (Wyndham Hotels & Resorts took over as sponsor in 2007). The event has a lengthy history and has been the site for several PGA Tour records. In 1965, Sam Snead set PGA Tour records for being the oldest player to win a PGA Tour event (age 52) and for most wins at a sole event (8th win). Fifty years later, in 2015, Davis Love III won here at age 51 and became the oldest player to win on the PGA Tour in the Senior/Champions Tour era (1980).
The Course
Sedgefield Country Club, in Greensboro, N.C., took over as host of the Wyndham Championship in 2008. The Wyndham is held at the Ross Course, named for its designer Donald Ross, which opened in 1926. The course was renovated in 2007 by Kris Spence, a golf course architect based in Greensboro, who worked as the course superintendent at nearby Forest Oaks Country Club, which hosted the Wyndham from 1977-2007.
Sedgefield is a par-70 of 7,131 yards. It is a typical Carolina course with tree-lined fairways, pine straw and Champion Bermudagrass throughout. The course is a par-70 with only two par-5s and four par-3s. Nine of the 12 par-4s are less than 450 yards. The two par-5s are each shorter than 550 yards and are the easiest group on tour with a combined birdie-or-better rate of 59%.
The fairways are narrow (29-yard average — ninth narrowest on tour) and the rough measures at 2.5 inches. There are five water hazards in play on six holes and the layout is not all that heavily bunkered (52 on course — seventh fewest on tour); however, the fairway bunkers at Sedgefield are the toughest from which to reach the greens in regulation. The Champion Bermuda greens (average 6,000 square feet) undulate and are fast (12.5 stimpmeter).
Six of the past seven years the winning score has been at least 20 under. Over the past five events, the course has played to an average of 1.24 shots under par, making it the 13th-easiest track in the tour rotation. There are only six holes that average over par. When winds are down and conditions are soft, low scores are in play, as evidenced by the course record of 59 that was set by Brandt Snedeker on his way to victory at the 2018 Wyndham.
If looking for a course correlation, here are some other Donald Ross designs:
- East Course at Oak Hill: 2013 PGA Championship
- Detroit GC: Rocket Mortgage Classic
- Plainfield: 2011 and 2015 Barclays
- Aronimink GC: 2010 and 2011 AT&T National, 2018 BMW Championship
- East Lake GC: Tour Championship
Other course correlations include the Ross-designed Detroit Golf Club where the Rocket Mortgage Classic is held, Waialae, Colonial, TPC River Highlands, TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town and Sea Island Seaside.
Wyndham Championship Recent History
2022: Tom Kim (-20/260); 35-1
2021: Kevin Kisner (-15/265); 55-1*
2020: Jim Herman (-21/259); 600-1
2019: J.T. Poston (-22/258); 100-1
2018: Brandt Snedeker (-21/259); 28-1
2017: Henrik Stenson (-22/258); 14-1
2016: Si Woo Kim (-21/259); 150-1
2015: Davis Love III (-17/263); 500-1
2014: Camilo Villegas (-17/263); 125-1
2013: Patrick Reed (-14/266); 80-1**
2012: Sergio Garcia (-18/262); 40-1
2011: Webb Simpson (-18/262); 20-1
2010: Arjun Atwal (-20/260); 200-1
Playoff win over Branden Grace, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Na, Adam Scott, Roger Sloan - *
Playoff win over Jordan Spieth - **
Statistical Analysis
Five of the last seven winners have ranked fourth or better on Approach during their respective winning weeks.
Strokes Gained Approach (Last 36 rounds)
- Hideki Matsuyama 36.2
- Mark Hubbard 35.2
- Alex Smalley 34.5
- Lucas Glover 30.4
- Gary Woodland 27
- Russell Henley 26.7
- Adam Schenk 26.1
- Kevin Roy 25.9
- Aaron Rai 25.9
- Shane Lowry 25.6
- Chez Reavie 25.4
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 24.5
- Andrew Putnam 23.2
- Ryan Palmer 21.4
- Nate Lashley 21.4
- Si Woo Kim 21
- Eric Cole 19.9
- Justin Thomas 19.2
- Kevin Streelman 19
- Akshay Bhatia 18.6
The greens are very easy to hit here (74% GIR rate), so examining the proximity buckets is more pertinent.
Proximity Gained 125-150 Yards (Last 36 rounds)
- Chris Kirk 10.4
- Charley Hoffman 10.2
- Russell Henley 9.2
- Nicolai Hojgaard 7.2
- Webb Simpson 6.9
- Akshay Bhatia 6.4
- Cam Davis 6.2
- Chesson Hadley 6.1
- C.T. Pan 6
- Vincent Norrman 5.9
- Gary Woodland 5.2
- J.J Spaun 5.2
- Aaron Rai 5.1
- Ryan Palmer 5
Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards (Last 36 rounds)
- Aaron Rai 16.1
- Russell Knox 14.8
- Adam Schenk 12.4
- Ryan Moore 12.3
- Si Woo Kim 12.3
- Scott Piercy 11
- Ben Martin 10
- Doug Ghim 8.8
- Nicolas Echavarria 8.2
- Vincent Norrman 8.1
- Alex Smalley 8.1
Proximity Gained 175-200 Yards (Last 36 rounds)
- Gary Woodland 19.9
- Chez Reavie 17.9
- Hideki Matsuyama 17.5
- Lucas Glover 12.2
- Trey Mullinax 11.8
- Marty Dou 11.4
- Nate Lashley 11.1
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 10.7
- Justin Lower 10.5
- Will Gordon 10.1
- Henrik Norlander 9.7
- Justin Thomas 9.7
Distance off the tee is not crucial here. Accuracy and finding fairways are more important, so we examine Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (Off The Tee + Approach) and Fairways Gained.
Strokes Gained Ball Striking Short (<7,200 yards) Courses (Last 36 rounds)
- Justin Thomas 57.4
- Russell Henley 54.8
- Shane Lowry 51.5
- Hideki Matsuyama 47.7
- Sungjae Im 39.5
- Cameron Champ 36
- J.T. Poston 35.6
- Chris Kirk 34.8
- Adam Svensson 33.7
- Alex Smalley 29.1
- Chez Reavie 28.3
- Cam Davis 26.3
- Charley Hoffman 26.2
- Ryan Palmer 25.7
- Sam Burns 25.2
- J.J Spaun 24.2
- Byeong Hun An 23
- Matthew NeSmith 22.6
- Lucas Glover 22.2
- Adam Scott 21.3
Fairways Gained (Last 36 rounds)
- Ryan Moore 58.9
- Lucas Glover 58.1
- Ryan Armour 57
- Russell Henley 56.1
- Aaron Rai 55.7
- Si Woo Kim 53.2
- Doug Ghim 47.3
- Brendon Todd 47.1
- Andrew Landry 46.4
- Zac Blair 45.5
- David Lingmerth 45.4
- Adam Long 43.9
- Matthew NeSmith 42.4
- Jim Herman 38
- J.J. Spaun 36.3
- Brice Garnett 35.8
- Tyler Duncan 35.8
- James Hahn 30.8
- Austin Cook 30
Putting can be a challenge as averages here are more difficult than tour standards. Many greens have sharp ridges which allow for some interesting and tricky pin placements, and avoiding three-putts can be difficult. While running 12.5 on the stimpmeter, they do tend to run as some of the faster greens on tour.
This event will turn into a putting contest more often than not. Last year, the top four on the leaderboard each gained four strokes putting. Two years ago, 22 of the top 23 on the leaderboard gained strokes putting with 18 of those players gaining three strokes. And in 2020, you had to go all the way down to 27th place to find a golfer who lost strokes on the greens with 18 of the top 20 gaining at least two strokes.
Strokes Gained Putting Bermuda Greens (Last 36 rounds)
- Ben Taylor 36.8
- Sam Burns 31.8
- Brian Gay 31.6
- Sam Ryder 28.4
- Andrew Putnam 27.4
- Harry Hall 24
- Taylor Moore 23.7
- Matt Kuchar 23.2
- Ben Griffin 23.1
- Alex Noren 22.4
- Thomas Detry 21.3
- Justin Suh 19.9
- Richy Werenski 19.2
- Adam Schenk 18.6
- Chad Ramey 17.5
- Denny McCarthy 16.7
- Aaron Baddeley 15.8
- Dylan Frittelli 15.5
- Doc Redman 15
Three Putt Avoidance (Last 36 rounds)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 11.19
- Brian Gay 10.51
- Davis Thompson 9.62
- Beau Hossler 8.99
- Brian Stuard 8.27
- Eric Cole 8.26
- J.T. Poston 8.09
- Sam Burns 8.04
- Ryan Moore 7.79
- Andrew Putnam 7.25
- Adam Svensson 7.17
- Taylor Pendrith 6.99
- Aaron Baddeley 6.66
- Harry Higgs 6.52
- Ryan Armour 6.46
- Matti Schmid 6.36
- Nate Lashley 6.27
- Patrick Rodgers 6.01
Opportunities Gained identifies players that set themselves up for birdie opportunities and Birdie Or Better Gained accounts for converting said birdie/eagle opportunities.
Birdie Or Better Gained (Last 36 rounds)
- Adam Scott 32.4
- Nicolai Hojgaard 23.5
- Eric Cole 23
- Carson Young 22.4
- Cam Davis 20
- Denny McCarthy 19.6
- Taylor Moore 19.5
- Sungjae Im 19.4
- Dylan Wu 18.8
- Scott Piercy 18.5
- Sam Burns 17.5
- Gary Woodland 17.1
- Vincent Norrman 16.7
- Si Woo Kim 16.6
- Harry Hall 16.5
- Adam Schenk 15.7
- Kevin Yu 15.4
- MJ Daffue 14.7
- Stephan Jaeger 14.6
- Aaron Rai 14.4
- Davis Riley 14.1
Opportunities Gained (Last 36 rounds)
- Hideki Matsuyama 44.3
- Justin Thomas 35
- Lucas Glover 34.8
- Ryan Palmer 31.7
- Alex Smalley 29
- Chris Kirk 27.3
- Ben Martin 26.2
- Kevin Yu 26
- Si Woo Kim 23.4
- Sungjae Im 22.5
- Eric Cole 22.4
- Chez Reavie 21.7
- Stephan Jaeger 21.1
- Ludvig Aberg 20.4
- Davis Riley 17.2
- Carson Young 16.5
- Kevin Roy 16
- Akshay Bhatia 16
- Russell Henley 15.6
Eight of the 18 holes at Sedgefield are par-4s that measure 400-450 yards in length.
Strokes Gained par-4s 400-450 Yards (Last 36 rounds)
- Denny McCarthy 27.4
- Aaron Rai 19.4
- Thomas Detry 18.2
- Adam Scott 14.3
- Russell Henley 14
- Stephan Jaeger 13
- Brendon Todd 12.9
- Sam Burns 12.5
- Patrick Rodgers 12.2
- Cam Davis 11.7
- Shane Lowry 11.5
- Akshay Bhatia 11.5
- Ben Griffin 11.2
- Sungjae Im 10.7
- Brandt Snedeker 9.2
- Doug Ghim 8.9
- Alex Smalley 8.6
- Davis Riley 8.5
- Eric Cole 8.4
Selections
Denny McCarthy (25-1, DraftKings)
McCarthy should have had his first PGA Tour victory at the Memorial before losing in a playoff to Viktor Hovland. Nevertheless, he did not wallow in his misfortune and followed up with a T-20 at the U.S. Open, a T-7 at the Travelers and a T-6 at the John Deere Classic.
He ranks No. 1 in the field for Strokes Gained Par-4s 400-450 yards for the last 36 rounds, and Sedgefield has eight on the scorecard.
J.T. Poston (33-1, Circa Sports)
Poston went for it all last weekend at the 3M Open and cost himself a quarter-million dollars and valuable FedEx Cup points and took a fair amount of criticism for it. That may motivate him even more this week, which makes him more dangerous on a course where he earned his first PGA Tour victory in 2019.
He has three top-6 finishes in his last four starts plus a made cut at the British Open.
Aaron Rai (40-1, BetMGM)
Rai should be comfortably in the FedEx Cup playoffs sitting 61st presently courtesy of a third in Canada, a ninth in Detroit and seven top-20 finishes on the season.
The Englishman ranks No. 1 in this field for Proximity Gained 150-175 yards and near the top for Approach, Fairways Gained and Strokes Gained Par-4s 400-450 yards over the last 36 rounds.
Alex Smalley (45-1, Circa Sports)
This week is a bit of a home game for Smalley as he is a Duke graduate and resides in Greensboro.
We backed him a few weeks ago at the John Deere Classic and he finished T-2 and his ball striking (third on approach for last 36 rounds) should flourish here.
Brendon Todd (55-1, BetMGM)
A short course like Sedgefield that puts a premium on hitting fairways and turns into a putting contest is right up Todd's alley.
At the John Deere, Todd paired up with a new caddie (David Clark) and finished T-2, then made the cut at the British Open the week after.
Adam Svensson (66-1, BetMGM)
Svensson has played here twice, making the cut on both occasions, but shot a second-round 61 on debut here in 2019.
Because of his win last fall at the RSM Classic, he is safely in the top 70 for the playoffs. While only 37th last week at the 3M, he was top 15 for Approach and Tee To Green.
Adam Schenk (80-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Schenk has been boom or bust in 2023. While he has missed eight cuts in 22 events, he also has two runners-up (Valspar, Charles Schwab), a top-5 at the John Deere and top-10s at the Memorial and the Rocket Mortgage.
He has four missed cuts in five appearances in Greensboro, but he is playing the best golf of his career and was 30-1 just four weeks ago at the John Deere and is now almost triple the price in a field that is not much stronger.
Alex Noren (86-1, Circa Sports)
Noren sits 102nd in the FedEx Cup standings and needs a big week to get into the top 70 for next week. He also is one of a handful in the mix for one of the last spots on Team Europe for the Ryder Cup.
Noren’s correlating form includes fourth and ninth in his last two starts in Detroit plus 10th on his Players debut, and he is an elite putter on Bermuda greens.
Matchups (42-31-7)
Russell Henley -145 over Shane Lowry (BetMGM)
Sungjae Im -155 over Sam Burns (BetMGM)
Placement markets will be up Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks
