Pacific Classic 2018: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race
The scenario of champion Unique Bella facing the boys didn’t materialize for Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million TVG Pacific Classic. But that doesn’t mean Del Mar’s summer meet feature is lacking in story lines.
Chief among them is the clash between California stalwart Accelerate and Pavel, who won his first Grade 1 race last out after a string of consistent performances in major stakes races all over the map. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert entered two, including a new name to his barn, while there’s relation to Triple Crown winner Justify in the field as well.
Here’s a look at the field of eight with morning line odds:
1. The Lieutenant, 6-1 (Street Sense — Michael McCarthy/Flavien Prat — 13: 4-2-1 — $339,537): Out of the Ghostzapper mare Stage Magic, he’s a 5-year-old half brother to Triple Crown winner Justify who has done his best running as of late with four straight stakes finishes on the board. A May 28 victory came over Golden Gate’s synthetic going just a mile, but The Lieutenant also ran second to the red-hot Diversify when shipped East for the Grade 2 Suburban at Belmont. Still, this is a tough spot for a decent runner.
2. Dr. Dorr, 6-1 (Lookin At Lucky — Bob Baffert/Joe Talamo — 14: 5-2-1 — $428,320): Aside from a ninth in the Grade 2 Suburban, in which he was caught wide throughout, Dr. Dorr has appeared a much-improved horse at age 5. A shorter distance would be preferred, as he was tracked down by Accelerate after setting the pace in the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita. But Baffert’s older runners tend to collect checks, and this looks like another spot where Dr. Dorr could hold on for a placing while factoring in the early pace. He could stick around late.
3. Prime Attraction, 8-1 (Unbridled’s Song — Jim Cassidy/Kent Desormeaux — 16: 4-3-1 — $321,545): He has at times excelled at lower levels, including a score last November in Del Mar’s Grade 3 Native Diver. But both his Grade 1 tries resulted in off-the-board finishes. Connections are ambitious — they talked Pegasus World Cup before cooler heads prevailed — and this could be an instance of taking a shot. At the very least, he should factor on the early lead. Prime Attraction ran well off the layoff last out, third in the Grade 2 Eddie Read at 1 1/8 miles. He’s eligible to improve, but appears a cut below.
4. Roman Rosso, 5-1 (Roman Ruler — Bob Baffert/Drayden Van Dyke — 8: 5-1-0 — $547,576): This newcomer to the Baffert barn won five of his last six starts in South America. Now the Argentine-bred gets his shot in the U.S. while working consistently going back to June 1. He stopped the clock in 2:02.05 in his only start this year, a victory in the Group 1 Gran Premio Latinoamericano, with a stalking effort. Two starts back, he ran farther than 12 furlongs and romped going wire to wire in the Group 1 Gran Premio Nacional. A big unknown, but appears to have nice cruising speed.
5. Accelerate, 8-5 (Lookin At Lucky — John Sadler/Joel Rosario — 19: 7-5-5 — $1,712,480): The deserving favorite has already in 2018 year won a pair of Grade 1 races at 1 1/4 miles and almost always fires at Del Mar. Adding blinkers helped earlier in his career, plus Accelerate has improved with age, now posting his best performances at age 5. One variable here is a jockey change with Victor Espinoza injured. Joel Rosario picks up the mount on a horse that tends to stalk the pace and deliver a giant stretch run. Only Lava Man and Game On Dude have completed the Big 'Cap, Gold Cup at Santa Anita and Pacific Classic triple in a season. A repeat of his last race should be good enough.
6. Beach View, 15-1 (Giant’s Causeway — Leonard Powell/Rafael Bejarano — 10: 3-2-2 — $168,200): Last out, he closed better than Hoppertunity to win the Grade 3 Cougar II Handicap going 1 1/2 miles. While it was the 5-year-old’s first win since March of 2017, it was also his first career start at Del Mar. Maybe he has an affinity for the track. But at the 10-furlong mark of the Cougar II, Beach View was still having to dig, only in third. We’ll see if he handles the cutback in distance at a price. Recent win makes him an intriguing longshot.
7. Pavel, 7-2 (Creative Cause — Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez — 10: 3-0-1 — $1,175,000): After six defeats at racing’s highest levels, this 4-year-old earned a long-awaited win and Breeders’ Cup Classic bid in Churchill Downs’ Grade 1 Stephen Foster. Looking back at that field, however, he didn’t beat too much. Off a 3 3/4-length score, Pavel will face much stiffer competition here. He’s only finished worse than fourth once — in his only prior start at Del Mar — but given it was the Breeders’ Cup Classic, that may not be a fair indicator. Consistent runner's difficult to trust as a win pick.
8. Two Thirty Five, 20-1 (Stay Thirsty — Richard Baltas/Franklin Ceballos — 13: 4-2-2 — $129,440): The allowance winner graduated to stakes last out and ran fourth behind convincing winner Catalina Cruiser in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap. That was fourth of five, however, and he only beat Harlan Punch, who was eased out of the race. Two Thirty Five's wins at the lower levels have come by running both on the lead and near it early around two turns, suggesting he could play into the pace here with a nice break. It’s doubtful he’ll be around late in the going.
Summary: This race looks primed to be led early by Prime Attraction or Dr. Dorr, with the favored Accelerate in the first half of the field. None of these seem to truly thrive at 10 furlongs like Accelerate, who can stamp himself as a major Breeders' Cup Classic contender with another victory here. Roman Rosso is intriguing and should take some money, while Prime Attraction could surprise on the board.
