Pacific Classic odds, analysis: 3-year-old winner is likely

Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Pacific Classic drew a field of 11 that includes a trio of 3-year-olds who will face older horses for the first time. Two of the sophomores were made the top choices in Del Mar’s morning line, with Geaux Rocket Ride at 5-2 and Arabian Knight assigned odds of 3-1.

Historically, five 3-year-olds have been able to handle the 1 1/4-mile distance and win the Pacific Classic, with Shared Belief being the most recent in 2014. Hall of famer Best Pal won the inaugural running of the race in 1991.

Here is a full-field analysis with the official track morning-line odds for the Pacific Classic, which is a win-and-you’re-in qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The Pacific Classic is set as race 10 of 11 with post time scheduled for 6:00 p.m. EDT.

1. Geaux Rocket Ride, 5-2. Candy Ride – Richard Mandella / Mike Smith – 4: 3-1-0 - $780,200. Geaux Rocket Ride has done little wrong in his four-race career, with three victories and a second since debuting in January at Santa Anita. His lone loss came in his second start when he stepped up from his maiden win going six furlongs to racing around two turns in the San Felipe (G2) and finished behind the talented Practical Move. The son of Candy Ride had plenty of time between starts and became a stakes winner in his third race in June in the Affirmed. Geaux Rocket Ride became a Grade 1 winner when he shipped across the country to win the Haskell Stakes, defeating Kentucky Derby winner Mage and Arabian Knight. He will have to stretch out to the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles and face older horses for the first time. Trainer Richard Mandella won the Pacific Classic three times, and rider Mike Smith will try for his fifth victory. Top choice.

2. Katonah, 20-1. Klimt – Doug O’Neill / Antonio Fresu – 11: 4-2-2 - $210,180. Katonah will run in a graded stakes race for the first time after a win in the Pleasanton Mile on the California fair circuit in July. The 4-year-old broke her maiden at Del Mar in 2021 for a $50,000 tag and was claimed. Since then she had seven starts and finished in the top three six times. The gelding faces a significant class challenge as he stretches out in distance. Trainer Doug O’Neill won the Pacific Classic in 2006 with the legendary Lava Man. Toss.

3. Stilleto Boy, 8-1. Shackleford – Ed Moger Jr. / Kent Desormeaux – 23: 4-4-9 - $1,816,175. Stilleto Boy ran in only Grade 1 and 2 races in his last 10 starts and cannot be dismissed because of his consistency. On his best, Stilleto Boy was the winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) this year going 10 furlongs. More often he has hit the board in big races such as the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Last seen the 5-year-old was sixth in the Stephen Foster (G1) two months ago. Use underneath.

4. Tripoli, 20-1. Kitten’s Joy – John Sadler / Tiago Pereira – 26: 5-4-4 - $968,260. Trainer John Sadler won the Pacific Classic four times since 2018, including with Tripoli in 2021. The now 6-year-old has only one victory since his win in this race, and that was in an allowance at Golden Gate in March on its artificial surface. It seems like age has caught up with Tripoli and that he cannot compete at this level any longer. Toss.

5. Defunded, 4-1. Dialed In – Bob Baffert / J J Hernandez – 18: 7-4-2 - $1,606,100. Defunded was a heavy favorite in his last four starts for Bob Baffert with victories in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) going the 1 1/4-mile distance and in the Californian (G2) at Santa Anita. At Del Mar in July, Defunded ran fourth in the San Diego Handicap (G2) when he did not get into contention early in the race. Baffert won the Pacific Classic six times, most recently with Maximum Security in 2020. Win contender.

6. Order and Law, 30-1. Violence – Robert Hess Jr. / Edwin Maldonado – 42: 8-6-2 - $456,804. Order and Law returned to the winner’s circle after 11 starts when he won the Cougar II Stakes (G2), which was run at 1 1/2 miles. He had not won a stakes race since he was a 2-year-old in 2018. Most of his wins were in allowance races. Toss.

7. Slow Down Andy, 8-1. Nyquist – Doug O’Neill / Mario Gutierrez – 12: 4-4-2 - $976,600. Slow Down Andy has missed the top three only twice in his 12-race career. Last year as a 3-year-old he won the Sunland Derby (G3) on the Kentucky Derby trail and the Del Mar Derby (G2) on the turf. He ended his 2022 campaign with a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. This year he was sixth in the Met Mile (G1) and was second in the San Diego. Use underneath.

8. Senor Buscador, 10-1. Mineshaft – Todd Fincher / Geovanni Franco – 12: 6-0-1 - $667,427. Senor Buscador rallied from last in a nine-horse field to win the San Diego Handicap. He also was a Grade 3 winner last year in the Ack Ack at Churchill Downs. The son of Mineshaft is the winner of six races from 12 starts but not at a distance beyond 1 1/16 miles. His last race was probably the best of his career, but he will have to deal with the added distance. Live long shot.

9. Arabian Knight, 3-1. Uncle Mo – Bob Baffert / Flavien Prat– 3: 2-0-1 - $644,275. Arabian Knight will face older horses for the first time in just the fourth start of his career. After winning his first two races by open lengths each time as the odds-on favorite, he was at the top of Bob Baffert’s 3-year-old class this year. The son of Uncle Mo needed time off after the Southwest Stakes (G3) victory in January and returned six months later in the Haskell. He went right to the lead but this time was unable to keep going and finished third as the even-money favorite. Toss.

10. Piroli, 20-1. Battle of Midway – Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli – 14: 3-4-2 - $237,300. Piroli won three races in a row earlier in the year after breaking his maiden at Golden Gate and then taking a starter allowance by more than nine lengths and a first-level allowance at Santa Anita. In his first stakes race Piroli was second in the Gold Cup at 28-1. At Del Mar in July, the son of Battle of Midway broke poorly and finished fourth. This will be the toughest field of his career by far. Toss.

11. Skinner, 10-1. Curlin – John Shirreffs / Hector Berrios – 7: 1-1-3 - $241,300. Skinner is the other 3-year-old in the field, and he comes to the race with only a maiden victory to his credit. That win was in his first start of 2023 and was followed by a pair of thirds in Grade 1 races on the Kentucky Derby trail. As a 2-year-old, Skinner ran in the American Pharoah (G1) and the Del Mar Futurity (G1), showing that trainer John Shirreffs must have felt this son of Curlin was talented. Trifecta finish possible.

Summary: Inconsistent is the only way to describe the older horses in the Pacific Classic. At their best some of them have won big races, but as individuals that did not happen very often. Accordingly, 2023 seems like a year when the winner will be a 3-year-old.

Geaux Rocket Ride is lightly raced but never ran poorly. Shipped from California for the first time, he was an impressive winner of the Haskell. After that victory, trainer Richard Mandella already had the Pacific Classic in mind for his talented sophomore. Geaux Rocket Road is the top choice in the Pacific Classic.