Saturday plays: Long shot can shake up Pacific Classic exacta
While the Grade 1, $1 million Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Saturday offers a large and evenly-matched field, the race is not an easy one to settle on one horse. Maybe one long shot with a successful placing in a Grade 1 only a few months ago can surprise the public again with another big effort.
Before diving into the Pacific Classic and the backwheel for that race, here is one long shot selection for the Grade 2, $300,000 Del Mar Mile.
Del Mar Race 7: Del Mar Mile (G2)
The pace is liable to heat up with I’m a Gambler facing a contested lead with Sumter present. Even though Sumter has run as a stalker or closer in his turf sprint races, he turns into a speed horse when he stretches out to one mile and jockey Mike Smith usually does not wrangle back speed horses.
One long shot who figures to settle in a stalking or midpack position is War At Sea, who is the grandson of the legendary Serena’s Song.
Following some unsuccessful dirt starts to begin his career, War At Sea began to show signs of life on turf and took the Cinema Stakes at Santa Anita last year over Cabo Spirit in second in his fifth start on the surface.
Afterwards, War At Sea took a three-month break before making his next start in the Del Mar Derby (G2). Although War At Sea had the ground-saving pocket trip, he could not run down the uncontested pacesetter Slow Down Andy and had to settle for third in that race. But notice that War At Sea did finish ahead of a closing Balnikhov in fourth.
In this race, Balnikhov is 6-1 on the morning line and liable to fall lower, while War At Sea is 10-1 and probable to stay around those odds.
This year, War At Sea made his return in a local five-furlong optional claiming turf sprint earlier in the month and closed well for fourth in a race too short for him. War At Sea now makes his second start off the bench for trainer Ron Ellis and looks ready to fire on the stretch-out.
Win/place: 8 (at 6-1 or higher)
Del Mar Race 10: Pacific Classic (G1)
Back in May, Piroli gave a strong performance in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) when he took up the pressing role against Defunded on the lead.
On the far turn, Piroli almost took the lead from Defunded, before Defunded somehow fought back and held off a stubborn Piroli in the stretch run. Piroli had to settle for second, but he only lost by one length at 28-1.
With a good trip, Piroli might surprise the public once more. Forget about Piroli’s bad race in a local one-mile optional claimer on July 30. After stumbling at the break, he did not receive the greatest trip from the rear position. To Piroli’s credit, he did pass some horses in the stretch to finish a mild fourth. Consider the effort a nice warm-up.
In this spot, Piroli faces some developing 3-year-old stakes horses in Geaux Rocket Ride, Arabian Knight and Skinner. Geaux Rocket Ride recently won the Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth over Kentucky Derby champion Mage in second, while Arabian Knight faded slightly to third in the same race after setting some fast fractions. As for Skinner, he made a closing move for second in the Los Alamitos Derby in his recent start.
Skinner drew the wide post in this race and tends to hang in the stretch after making a big move on the far turn. He might flatten out again here on the stretch-out to 10 furlongs.
Geaux Rocket Ride and Arabian Knight both look like serious win contenders though, and Defunded can win with his best effort as well. Perhaps Piroli can sit behind the speed in an outside stalking position and finish second behind one of those three contenders at double-digit odds for a nice exacta payoff.
Piroli has been working well. Note his four-furlong Aug. 26 work in 47.60, where his time ended up as ninth best out of 126 workers at the same distance. The fact that Piroli shows three works since Aug. 11 is a good sign too.
As long as the odds remain attractive, Piroli is the backwheel key. In case Piroli actually wins, a win bet is also appropriate as well.
