Padres vs Brewers Odds, Predictions, Picks

Padres vs Brewers Picks

The NL is full of team playoff calibers teams trying to make a serious run towards the postseason with the month of August coming to a close. This Saturday's game two matchup of the Milwaukee Brewers (70-57) hosting the Sa Diego Padres (61-67) is going to be a game that has significant playoff implications. The Brewers are looking to maintain their lead in a tight NL Central Division. The Padres are looking for one more push from their incredibly talented roster to sneak in the NL Playoffs as a wildcard. Of all the games this Saturday, this game between the Padres and the Brewers has the closest odds with Milwaukee being the close favorite.

If the Padres want a chance to get into the NL Playoffs, their time is running out. The Padres were one of the most highly anticipated teams in the MLB due to the recent acquisition of All-Star talent at the plate. San Diego looked to be one of the best batting teams in the league, led by their trio of All-Stars in third baseman Manny Machado, shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and outfielder Juan Soto. 

Instead, the Padres are one of the most disappointing teams this season as the philosophy of buying their star players is not enough to overcome the significant amount of problems that surround their roster.

The Padres didn't start the 2023 MLB Season on a hot note, but they were able to account for a 6-4 season start that includes winning three of the four games at the Atlanta Braves. As the season progressed, the Padres found ways to consistently close games.

One of the worst stretches for the Padres in the first half of the season was when they lost 11 of 13 games from the beginning of May to near the end of it. The Padres entered the 2023 MLB All-Star Break with an overall record of 43-47.

San Diego continued to struggle through the second half of the season with August being another terrible run. The Padres have accounted for a 9-12 record through the first 21 games.

The Brewers are a team that have been in serious contention for the NL Central Division since the start of the 2023 MLB Season. One of their best starts to the season was when they won 14 of their first 19 games. 

As the season progressed, the Brewers remained one of the most consistent and underrated teams in the NL. The Brewers are one of a few teams in the league to not have gone under .500% since game one of the season.

Milwaukee went into the 2023 MLB All-Star Break with an overall record of 49-42. The Brewers are 21-15 in the second half of the season leading up to a three-game home series versus the Padres. The Brewers are on a five-game winning streak, which includes a three-game sweep on the road versus the Texas Rangers and a two-game sweep at home versus the Minnesota Twins.

San Diego Padres Predictions

The Padres looked like the team to beat before the 2023 MLB Season due to the talented roster led by Machado, Tatis, and Soto. There have been a few players who have also stepped up to match the production value, but the roster is top-heavy with not a lot of support from role players in the batting, fielding, and pitching game.

Arguably, two of the top and most consistent batters this season for the Padres this season are not the three All-Stars. Second baseman Ha-Seong Kim and shortstop Xander Bogaerts are the two players to praise when it comes to consistency at the plate. Kim has accounted for  72 runs, 118 hits, 17 home runs, 49 RBIs, 96 strikeouts, and a batting average of .280. Bogaerts has accounted for 57 runs, 122 hits, 14 home runs, 44 RBIs, 87 strikeouts, and a batting average of .263.

Tatis, Machando, and Soto have accounted for great moments this season, but it is not often they play great at the same time. When one-star player performs great, the others don't perform at the same standard. 

The main problem with the Padres is with the other main starters. For example, centerfielder Trent Grisham might be doing more harm than good for the Padres by only accounting for 81 hits and 12 home runs, but striking out for a team-high 134 times and accounting for a batting average of .208. Designated hitter Matt Carpenter has a batting average of .170 this season. 

The Padres are nowhere near the level of expectations at the plate as they should be. San Diego ranks eighth in the NL in runs accounted for (576), 12th in hits accounted for (1005), fifth in home runs (161), sixth in strikeouts encountered (1046), 13th in batting average (.237), seventh in on-base percentage (.324) and eighth in slugging percentage (.408).

The Padres' saving grace this season has been the stellar play of their pitching. They rank first in the NL in ERA (3.78), second in hits allowed (1011), first in runs allowed (514), fifth in home runs allowed (141), 10th in walks allowed (428) and third in strikeouts delivered (1136). Three of their main six starting pitchers have an ERA of 3.05 or lower this season.

Pedro Avila (1.17 ERA in 23 innings pitched) is set to be the starting pitcher for the Padres on Saturday against the Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers Predictions

The Milwaukee Brewers have to be one of the most interesting teams in the MLB this season. They are a team that doesn't rely on the batting game to engage in high-scoring games. They like to win by solid pitching, playing great in the fielding game, and playing it safe in the batting game. That is a big indication why they are one of the most underrated, but dangerous teams in the MLB this season. 

The Brewers are one of the least successful batting teams this season. They rank in the bottom half of the NL in all major batting categories except for walks and stolen bases. Milwaukee ranks 12th in the NL in runs accounted for (552), 15th (last) in hits accounted for (989), 11th in home runs (134), sixth in stolen bases accounted for (101), ninth in strikeouts encountered (1116), 14th in batting average (.235), 13th in on-base percentage (.314) and 15th in slugging percentage (.380).

Left fielder Christian Yelich and centerfielder William Contreras have been two of the most reliable playmakers for the Brewers this season. Yelich has accounted for 88 hits, 136 hits, 16 home runs, 67 RBIs, 62 walks, a batting average of .286, an on-base percentage of .372 and a slugging percentage of .454. Contreras has accounted for 60 runs, 111 hits, 13 home runs, 58 RBIs, 90 strikeouts, a batting average of .275, an on-base percentage of .352 and a slugging percentage of .449.

The Brewers are one of the most reliable pitching teams this season in the entire MLB. What makes them dangerous is the assembly of reliable starting, replacement, and closing pitchers. Right-handed pitchers Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams have been to the last two MLB All-Star games. Nine of the last ten players to represent the Brewers in the last three MLB All-Star games have been pitchers.

Milwaukee ranks fourth in the NL in ERA accounted for (3.98), first in hits allowed (988), third in runs allowed (542), 11th in home runs allowed (160), fourth in walks allowed (388), and fifth in strikeouts (1098).

Freddy Peralta (3.97 ERA in 133.2 innings pitched) is set to be the starting pitcher for the Brewers on Saturday against the Padres.

Padres vs Brewers Over/Under Analysis

The over/under for the matchup on Saturday is set at nine runs, which is high considering the high level of pitching both teams possess. If this is a low-scoring game, it will be because the Brewers suppressed the Padres significantly at the plate. There is also a solid chance that the Padres could find a scoring rhythm at the plate.