Padres vs Giants Odds, Picks, & Predictions

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25 September 2023

Padres vs Giants Odds, Picks, & Predictions

The Padres have been white hot, winning nine of 10 games in a last-ditch effort to reach the postseason. With ace Blake Snell toeing the rubber, our betting picks are bullish on the Friars to continue on this path against the floundering Giants.

The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants begin a three-game series tonight as both cling to slim postseason aspirations.

Although both teams have identical records, they’ve been headed in different directions of late. San Diego has been rising through the standings by winning nine of its last 10 games while San Francisco has plummeted by dropping eight of 10.

With just six games remaining, playing in October is looking increasingly out of reach, and at least one of these sides will exit this series with sights set on 2024.

Looking at MLB odds, the Padres are a very slim favorite today. Check out my best bet and read on for my full MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Giants on Monday, September 25.

Padres vs Giants odds

Padres vs Giants predictions

The San Diego Padres are playing their best baseball of the season while the San Francisco Giants are feeling the weight of crushed dreams after a miserable showing in a 10-game road trip.

The Giants have not played at home since September 13, when they were four games above .500. They’ll be glad to be back at Oracle Park after a disastrous road trip in which they went 2-8 and most recently lost in walk-off fashion to their rival Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday night. This team just had its postseason expectations crushed and I don’t expect a strong bounce-back performance against a surging Padres team.

The lineup struggled to get anything going, posting a 77 wRC+ and .280 wOBA across the 10-game trip. That’s a stark contrast to the Padres, who have the league’s best wRC+ (141) and wOBA (.374) in their last 10.

It took them forever to get going, but this talented San Diego lineup is finally hitting. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been red-hot, collecting a hit in 11 of his last 12 games with five multi-hit outings. Juan Soto has been one of the best players in baseball, going 21-for-46 in his last 12 games for a .457 BA while bashing nine extra-base hits and 20 RBI. Xander Bogaerts has seven multi-hit games in his last nine.

The Padres are in fantastic hands with Cy Young front-runner Blake Snell on the mound. The left-hander has been electric, owning a 0.56 ERA across his last five appearances. He’s allowed just a single hit over his last two outings and most recently threw seven hitless innings while striking out 10 against the Colorado Rockies.

The veteran has been aces against San Francisco this year, too, tossing 12 scoreless frames while notching 19 strikeouts. This is a great matchup for him to continue his recent success as the Giants struggle to hit lefties, posting a 91 wRC+ and .302 wOBA on the season.

San Diego is playing its best ball of the season, has a substantial hitting advantage, and has one of the hottest starting pitchers in the game on the mound Monday night. I’ll back the Padres to make it 10 wins in their last 11 games by playing them on the moneyline in this series opener.

My best bet: Padres moneyline (-112 at DraftKings)

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Padres vs Giants same-game parlay

Padres moneyline

Under 7

Fernando Tatis Jr. to record a hit

Xander Bogaerts to record a hit

This four-leg SGP will feature a side, a total, and not one but TWO player props.

The first play that I'm adding to the Padres moneyline is the full-game total Under 7. I expanded on Snell’s virtues above in what is a squash matchup against a floundering Giants lineup that has struggled to hit lefties all year, but I have yet to mention San Francisco ace Logan Webb. He’s been his usual excellent self this season and has a 2.37 ERA at Oracle Park, so I like the odds of this one turning into a pitching duel.

Finally, I'm taking Tatis and Bogaerts to each collect a hit, which is something they’ve both been doing with regularity. Tatis has at least one hit in 11 of his last 12 while Bogaerts has a hit in eight of his last nine. These two players are in excellent form and Webb mostly pitches to contact with just a 3.8% walk rate and 22.9% strikeout rate.

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Padres vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis

This line is close to a pick ‘em with San Diego no higher than -120 and San Francisco at EVEN. The total is set at 7 across most books, although 6.5 was also available at the time of this writing. Shop around using our MLB odds tool to ensure you grab the best price available before placing your wager.

If looking to play the total, both teams have played to the Under this season and will send their respective aces to the mound. The total is justifiably marked down at 7 and I could only consider the Under.

San Francisco has been in a lot of low-scoring games, cashing the Under in 80 of their last 142 for an ROI of 10%. The Giants’ team total has been an even better play as they’ve cashed the Under in 49 of their last 79 games for an ROI of 18%.

San Diego has gone Under the total in 78 of their last 149 games for an ROI of 7%. That includes a 1-4 O/U mark in its last five games. Snell has been even better on the road (2.13 ERA) than at home (2.52 ERA) this season and it’s reasonable to expect another strong showing here at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, so the Padres and the Under is the way to look.

Trend to know

The Padres are 15-6 straight up across their last 21 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants

Padres vs Giants game info

Starting pitchers

Blake Snell (14-9, 2.33 ERA): Snell has been superb this season. He’s leading the Cy Young conversation and will look to strengthen his bid by making this his sixth straight win. The lefty has blanked his opposition in each of his last two outings. He’s pitched against San Francisco twice this season, going 12 scoreless innings with 19 strikeouts.

Logan Webb (10-13, 3.35 ERA): The Giants are just 1-4 across Webb’s last four starts. Most recently, he allowed three earned across six IP while allowing nine hits and two walks against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The right-handed ace has been much better at home (2.37 ERA) than on the road (4.31) this season. His peripherals are all encouraging as he sports a 3.65 xERA, 3.22 FIP, and 2.99 xFIP.