Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 pick: NHL odds, predictions

The Florida Panthers pulled off one of the most stunning results in Stanley Cup Playoff history in Round 1.

Down 3-1 in their best-of-7 series with the record-setting Boston Bruins, the Cats fought back with three straight wins (two of which came in overtime) to shock the B’s and the hockey world.

There’s no time for Florida to soak in the praise, though, as the Panthers have a quick turnaround ahead of Round 2, which begins on Tuesday in Toronto.

The Maple Leafs are a -165 favorite to win the series and are -150 to take Game 1.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 pick

(7 p.m. ET)

Toronto fans will certainly be thrilled with avoiding Boston, but overlook the Panthers at your own risk.

Not only did the Cats earn their historic upset, but Florida was scorching hot down the stretch of the regular season, too.

The Panthers looked unlikely to make the postseason at the All-Star break, but turned their season around with a 15-8-2 run in their last 25 games and a 12-5-2 stretch after the trade deadline.

And it wasn’t just the W-L record that looked good for the Cats — they also boasted one of the strongest statistical portfolios in the NHL during the business end of the regular season.

Florida ranked second in 5-on-5 goal difference, third in shot attempt rate, ninth in expected goal percentage and eighth in high-danger scoring chance share.

Only Colorado scored more goals at 5-on-5 than the Panthers and no team got more shots on goal per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 than Florida over its last 25 contests.

Florida’s got flaws in their own end — goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been up and down this season and the defense is thin — but the Cats tilt the ice in the right direction enough that they can provide cover for those warts.

It’s a tough ask against a team that can light it up like the Leafs, but the Panthers should be pretty confident after going toe-to-toe with the record-breaking Bruins over the last fortnight.

Toronto was one of the stronger 5-on-5 teams over the course of the 82-game regular season, but the Leafs saw their 5-on-5 play dip down the stretch after the team made a number of changes to the roster at the deadline.

That trend continued against the Lightning, as the Leafs were outplayed for chunks of that series despite walking out of Tampa with a 4-2 series win. 

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Stylistically, the Panthers could give Toronto a lot to think about, too.

The Leafs can punish you when they’re on the puck and in transition, but Florida’s speed figures to give the Buds some issues going the other way.

Toronto’s defense is deep and has some top-level talent, but there is a lack of footspeed among the ranks and the team’s checking lines have a similar issue. 

The Leafs are deserving to be the clear favorites in this series and in Game 1, but the Panthers come into this contest in red-hot form and have the 5-on-5 game to give Toronto issues. 

Florida is the value side for Game 1.