Panthers vs Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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28 November 2023

Panthers vs Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Despite firing away at one of the highest rates in the NHL, Matthew Tkachuk hasn't been finding the back of the net very often. Against a generous Leafs defense, we suspect that luck may change tonight.

We’ve got 10 games on the NHL slate tonight, including an Atlantic Division showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers.

The Leafs have just two regulation wins in their last 10 games and have some concerning trends that are starting to form that the Panthers could take advantage of in this matchup.

The NHL odds suggest Toronto should win, but some of these trends may lead to an alternate result. Find out why in my free NHL picks for this November 28 matchup.

Panthers vs Maple Leafs odds

Panthers vs Maple Leafs predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs return home to host the Florida Panthers at Scotiabank Arena as the Buds get set to play their first game in that building since November 11.

The Leafs are coming off back-to-back losses where they spent a lot of time in their own end and gave up a lot of shots to the other side. In fact, they’ve been one of the worst shot-suppressing teams in the league over their last five, giving up an average of 33.1 shots per game (ranking 31st).

Enter the Panthers, who are tied for the second-most shots per game over their last five contests with an average of 33.4 shots on goal. A big part of that is because Florida spends 44.6% of their games in the offensive zone, which ranks second in the NHL behind only the Hurricanes.

The player leading the charge here for the Panthers is Matthew Tkachuk. According to NHL Edge, Tkachuk spends the fifth-most time on the offensive side of the ice, with 49.5% of his total ice time being played on the opposing end.

A lot of this has to do with his 70% O-zone starts as well, which has allowed him to be Florida’s go-to trigger man and a Top-5 volume shooter in the league, averaging 4.19 shots per game.

The current total for Tkachuk’s shot prop market is 3.5, and it’s a number he’s hit in 11 of his 21 games this season. Given the fact that the Maple Leafs are giving up shots at an alarming rate and are spending over 40% of the team’s game on their end of the ice, Tkachuk should be able to hit his yearly average of 4+ shots.

My best bet: Matthew Tkachuk Over 3.5 shots on goal (+100 at SIA)

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Panthers vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay

Matthew Tkachuk anytime goalscorer

Panthers team total Over 2.5

Over 5.5

I'm switching Tkachuk's shots to Tkachuk anytime goalscorer as shot props aren't available in the SGP. He's been the most snake-bitten scorer in the NHL with the fifth-most shots on net despite being stuck on three goals in seven games now.

According to MoneyPuck.com, Tkachuk leads the NHL with six goals scored below expectations this season. It would be fitting for his luck to turn in Toronto.

Next up, let’s take the Panthers to score Over 2.5 goals. The Panthers average 2.9 goals per game, but Toronto is allowing 3.4 and has given up 3+ goals in eight of their last 10 games and in all but one home game.

For a Panthers team that sits near the top of the league in expected goals, taking on a Toronto team that ranks near the Bottom 10 of the league in most defensive categories... Florida should be good for three goals.

For the final leg of my parlay, I’ll take the Over on the alternate total of 5.5. Both of these teams sit in the Top 10 in high-danger shots, with three of the Top-4 volume shooters in the league from those high-scoring areas.

With Toronto struggling to limit those chances and Florida being on the second leg of a back-to-back, it could lead to a high-event game, which should allow for more goal-scoring, especially with Florida rolling with backup goaltender Anthony Stolarz between the pipes.

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Panthers vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs are favored to win this game with -145 odds, while the Panthers are paying +120 as road dogs. Florida has certainly been the better team this season and has won seven of the 10 meetings between these two clubs in 2023 (playoffs included).

Plus-money odds seem like a good value play here for Florida, which takes on a Leafs team struggling to find offense from their top players and hasn’t made many improvements on defense or in net. Plus, the underdog has been victorious in eight of the last nine meetings.

The total for this game opened up at 6 but has since climbed to 6.5, with the Over giving -120 odds and the Under paying even money (+100). With the total climbing to 6.5, it’s tempting to take the value of a low-scoring affair, especially since it's hit in eight straight meetings.

However, games at Scotiabank Arena have been going Over the total regularly this season, with seven of the nine games being goal fests. The underlying numbers would suggest it’s probable to happen again, as would the sharp money that moved the line initially.