Panthers vs. Maple Leafs prop picks: William Nylander should clear his shot total

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Florida Panthers tonight for the first of four regular season matchups between these teams.

The pregame narrative: Florida shoots a ton and allows plenty of shots on its own net, which makes both William Nylander and Sam Bennett enticing on their shot props. Also, we’re taking a swing with the red-hot John Tavares, who’s scored plenty of goals against the Panthers in the past.

Odds as of 11:59 a.m. on 01/17/2023.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs picks

Best Bet: Nylander over 3.5 shots (-106)

For a guy who’s averaging a goal every two games, there’s almost never a bad time to shoot. It seems Nylander figured that out a while ago, and he hasn’t looked back since.

Dividing a season of stats into uneven portions can feel arbitrary, but check out the notable shift in Nylander’s shot volume and usage over the past 20 games (compared to all prior games this season):

With more ice time has come more chances to fire the puck. And the first-line winger is not eschewing his opportunities.

To get near-even money here is excellent value. Especially given the high-event brand of hockey the Panthers play. They lead the league in shots per 60 (35.6), and they’re 12th in shots allowed per 60 (31.8).

Also, it’s nice knowing that Nylander will shoot through a slump. He’s been goal-less in his past six games but still cleared this line five times.

Key stat: Nylander has four or more shots in 15 of his past 20 games.

Quick picks

Tavares anytime goal (+155): Since joining the Maple Leafs, Tavares has scored at least once in seven of 10 matchups with Florida (12 goals total), but we’re more interested in his excellent recent production.

The captain has five goals in his past six games, leading the Maple Leafs with a whopping 2.33 individual expected goals per 60 in that span, per Natural Stat Trick.

We’re also eyeing the over on his 2.5-shot total — a line he’s cleared in seven straight games — but at -167 odds the juice is a bit off-putting.

Bennett over 2.5 shots (-114): We mentioned that the Panthers shoot more than anyone else in the league, and Bennett’s shots line tonight is worth a look. The second-line centre has cleared it four games in a row, as well as 10 of his past 15.

On the season, Bennett has averaged 3.1 shots per game. He’ll face a tougher-than-usual opponent in Toronto, but he had nine shots in three meetings against the Leafs last year.