Maple Leafs vs. Sabres picks and odds Feb. 21: Betting lines, prop bets and predictions

For the first time this year, the Toronto Maple Leafs head to Western New York to take on the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center.

The pregame narrative: The Leafs hosted the Sabres in November, earning a 5-2 win over Buffalo in the process, but they haven’t yet faced this Atlantic Division foe on the road. Buffalo won two of its past three games on a West Coast trip, while Toronto started its road trip with a loss in Chicago on Sunday.

NHL odds as of 10:00 a.m. on 02/21/2023.

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres picks

Best Bet: Nylander, Thompson 1+ points each (+108)

Seven of the past eight matchups between these teams have featured six or more goals, so it makes sense to back both teams’ leading scorers for a plus-money wager.

William Nylander (31 goals, 66 points in 57 games) hasn’t missed a beat since linemate Auston Matthews returned. In the past three games alongside Matthews, Nylander has five points, cashing this prop each time.

In fact, the 26-year-old is on an impressive 13-game stretch in which he’s found the score sheet 11 times and notched 19 points.

Tage Thompson (36 goals, 71 points in 54 games) doesn’t have quite as much recent success, but he’s still tallied a point in nine of his past 12 games.

One thing we know for sure about Thompson: He’s not shy about creating chances. According to Natural Stat Trick, Thompson ranks second in the NHL in both individual Corsi per 60 (21.0) and points per 60 (3.2).

Although Thompson was held without a point against Toronto in November, he did manage to fire nine shots on goal.

Key stat: Nylander has a point in 41 games this season (71.9%), while Thompson has a point in 37 games (68.5%).

Quick picks

Tuch over 2.5 shots (-124): Playing on a line with Thompson might cap a player’s individual scoring chances, but Alex Tuch should clear this line as he has with regularity in recent weeks.

In his past 20 games, Tuch is averaging 3.1 shots per game, clearing this line 15 times. We’re happy to back him on this line given that he’s cleared it in exactly two-thirds of his games overall.

Also, Tuch had four shots (and a goal) against the Maple Leafs in November.

Over 6.5 goals (-130): The Maple Leafs are typically our greater concern when it comes to hitting overs, but they’ve been more active on that front since February began. Toronto has gone over in four of its six games this month.

Buffalo, meanwhile, has hit the over or pushed in 31 of 54 matchups (57.4%) thanks to its combination of efficient scoring and messy goaltending. The Sabres rank fourth in shooting percentage at 5-on-5 (9.4%) and 24th in 5-on-5 save percentage (.909).

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