Pelicans vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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29 January 2024

Pelicans vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Despite losing back-to-back games at home, the Celtics still possess the NBA's best home record and are 9-point favorites against the visiting Pelicans tonight as a result. Read our NBA picks below to find out why we expect them to take care of business.

After beginning the season a perfect 20-0 at home, the Boston Celtics have somewhat shockingly lost consecutive games at TD Garden, but what are the chances that arguably the best team in the NBA loses three in a row at home?

According to the NBA odds who list them as near-double-digit home favorites against the visiting New Orleans Pelicans, not good.

The Pelicans enter this matchup at 26-20 and in the seventh spot in the Western Conference but haven’t been playing the most consistent basketball of late. They've dropped five of their last eight games straight up and against the spread.

Can New Orleans keep this one close, or will Boston get back on track in Beantown? I break down this matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Celtics.

Pelicans vs Celtics odds

Pelicans vs Celtics predictions

The sky is falling! The Boston Celtics have lost two games in a row at home. Not really though.

We can give the Celtics a bit of a break. The two losses came against the defending champion Nuggets and arguably the best team in the NBA since the start of December, the Clippers.

On top of that, Boston still owns the NBA’s best record at 35-11 and leads the Association in net rating while being the only team to rank in the Top 3 in both offensive and defensive rating. Jayson Tatum is still playing at an MVP level, averaging 26.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game.

With Tatum suiting up next to Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White, the Celtics have — for my money — the best starting lineup in basketball.

And it’s their prowess at the defensive end of the floor that could be a problem for an inconsistent New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

The Pelicans enter this game having gone 3-5 SU/ATS in their last eight games overall which includes back-to-back losses to the Bucks and Thunder, the latter of which they scored just 83 points against.

The Pelicans rank a middling 12th in offensive rating and 14th in effective field goal percentage over that 8-game stretch. And even those numbers are a bit padded thanks to four matchups coming against the Mavericks (x2), Hornets, and Jazz.

New Orleans is more of a traditional offense, doing its best work in paint, particularly when everyone is healthy. The Pels also take the eighth-fewest threes per game. This style works well much of the time, but it can cost them against good defensive teams. That’s exactly what the Celtics are.

Boston ranks second in the NBA in both defensive rating and opponent-effective field goal percentage, while giving up the fourth-fewest points per game at 110.7 per contest. The C's also have the bodies to battle the Pels on the boards while Holiday can harass CJ McCollum. Buckets will be tough to come by for the road team.

The Pelicans have played 13 games this season against teams currently ranked inside the Top 10 in defensive rating and are averaging 110.1 points in those games. I’m betting Boston will get right at home off the back of its elite defense and keep the Pelicans in check offensively.

My best bet: Pelicans team total Under 113.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Pelicans vs Celtics same-game parlay

Pelicans team total Under 113.5Zion Williamson Under 20.5 points

CJ McCollum to score 18+ points

As always, our same-game parlay tips off with my best bet, and that team total Under means someone is staying below their point total prop. I’m looking at Zion Williamson.

It still feels like the Pels treat Williamson very cautiously when it comes to injury management as he still sits out games from time to time. That said, I think that hurts his ability to get in a real rhythm.

Williamson is averaging 21.9 points per game but it feels like he's been very all-or-nothing of late. Over his last 10 games, he's averaging 20.5 points, scoring 23 or more five times, and 17 or fewer five times. This matchup against the Celtics is a tough one and I’m inclined to think the latter happens tonight.

However, someone’s got to score and I think their best candidate is CJ McCollum. The shooting guard is averaging 19.2 points per game while shooting an impressive 44% from 3-point range. And that’s the way to attack this Celtics team.

While Boston ranks sixth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, the team allows the fourth-most attempts from deep per game. If you give an elite shooter like McCollum too many looks, he’ll start draining them.

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Pelicans vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis

The Celtics opened this intriguing NBA matchup as 8-point home favorites, and bettors were quick to jump on Boston at that number as the line has moved to 9.5 as of Monday afternoon.

The Celtics have been a force on their home court all season long, losing their for the first time against the Nuggets back on January 19. And it’s not like they’ve just been winning, they're dominating. The Celtics have been home favorites of 8.5 points or more 15 times this season and are 10-5 ATS in those games.

The Pelicans have been plagued by inconsistent play of late and are 1-3 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. On top of that, I believe the Celtics are just a bad stylistic matchup for the Pelicans. I'd lean toward the home team here.

The total hit board at 233.5 and the early money has attacked the Over with the number sitting at 236.5 as of writing.

Since I’m already betting on this being a low-scoring game for the Pelicans, I'd lean toward the full-game Under as well. Particularly, considering New Orleans is a solid defensive team, ranking ninth in the NBA in defensive rating.

Pelicans vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Pelicans have only cashed the team total Over in 31 of their last 74 games for -18.45 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Celtics.

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