Pelicans vs Hawks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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10 March 2024

Pelicans vs Hawks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

It's simple. The Hawks can't stop anyone from scoring and Brandon Ingram is the Pelicans' most prolific scorer. Even on the road, the New Orleans forward can't be discounted at a relatively low total versus one of the league's worst defenses.

As the Atlanta Hawks aim to keep their NBA Play-In Tournament hopes alive without Trae Young in the lineup, Quin Snyder & Co. will face a tough task as the New Orleans Pelicans head to State Farm Arena tonight.

With its starting lineup healthy, the NBA odds have New Orleans as a seven-point road favorite against a Hawks team that’s won three in a row. But Atlanta will have its hands full with the Pelicans' offensive talent.

Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Hawks on Sunday, March 10.

Pelicans vs Hawks odds

Pelicans vs Hawks predictions

Since being traded to the New Orleans Pelicans from the Los Angeles Lakers, Brandon Ingram has become one of the best second fiddles in the Western Conference. The former No. 2 pick out of Duke hasn’t been a perennial All-Star, but he’s always a threat to score.

Ingram is averaging over 21 points in his fifth season with the Pels while once again perfectly complementing Zion Williamson. Both former Blue Devils have helped put New Orleans in playoff position for the second time in three seasons.

With just over a month left in the regular season, New Orleans is surging with four wins in its last five games and a 12-4 record since Jan. 31. To keep the good times rolling in the Big Easy, the Pelicans have what should be an easier matchup against an Atlanta Hawks team down All-Star point guard Trae Young.

Between Atlanta’s defensive struggles and Ingram's ability to pop off, the 26-year-old is poised to bring his best to State Farm Arena and top his 20.5-point total.

The Hawks have one of the worst defenses in the NBA, giving up the third most points per game (121.5) due to the fourth-worst defensive rating (119.8). For as bad as the defense has been, it’s even worse when up against shooters like Ingram.

While his scoring is down slightly this season (21.6 points per game), Ingram is one of only two players on New Orleans playing over 20 minutes and shooting at least 49% from the floor, 36% from three, and 80% from the free throw line (Herbert Jones being the other).

That ability to score in the mid-range or from deep will come in handy against the Hawks. Atlanta is among the worst teams in the NBA against the three, giving up 14 per game (27th in the league) and allowing teams to shoot 38.3% from behind the arc (28th). But it’s not much better the closer it gets to the net.

The Hawks are 27th in the NBA in 2-point percentage allowed (56.8%) and its poor defensive play lends well to opponents putting up plenty of shots. Atlanta sees the seventh-most shots against its defense per game in the NBA (91.4) and the fourth-most makes (45.1). Ingram should have the volume of shots needed to hit the Over.

He also leads the Pelicans in minutes per game (33.2) and is second in usage rate on New Orleans by the slightest of margins — Williamson is at 27.6% with Ingram at 27.3%. So, the opportunities and touches will be there for Ingram to find looks against this struggling Hawks defense.

My best bet: Brandon Ingram Over 20.5 points (-110 at bet365)

Pelicans vs Hawks same-game parlay

Brandon Ingram Over 20.5 pointsHerbert Jones Over 1.5 made threes

Zion Williamson Over 1.5 steals+blocks

Between the Hawks' poor perimeter defense and Jones’ consistency as a shooter, he’s in line for a big night behind the arc. Jones only takes 3.6 threes per game but shoots 43.5% from deep.

Against this Atlanta defense, he’ll have enough good looks to hit at least two treys. The Hawks give up the most threes in the league to small forwards this season (3.17). While Ingram and Jones can suffocate this Hawks defense, Williamson can smother its offense.

The Hawks allow the fifth-most steals per game (1.49) and the seventh-most blocks (1.27) to power forwards. That should allow Williamson to add to his season average of 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocks. He’s coming off back-to-back games with at least three combined steals and blocks.

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Pelicans vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis

As the Hawks continue to deal with Young's absence, the Pelicans opened as 5.5-point favorites at most books. As tip-off approached, the Pels were favored by as many as eight points, but the line has since come down to -7.

New Orleans has been one of the best teams in the NBA against the spread, going 35-27-1, and is 4-1 in its last five. The Hawks, on the other hand, are the worst ATS team in the NBA at 22-41 but have covered in three straight. In the previous matchup these two teams played in November, the Hawks covered the -2 spread.

The game total opened at 222.5 and has seen little movement with most books only shifting a 0.5-point in either direction. The Pelicans haven’t been a strong Over team this season, going 28-34-1, but the Hawks are among the best at 33-29-1. In the game in November, the Under hit with a game total of 237.5.

Pelicans vs Hawks betting trend to know

The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Hawks.

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