Penn State vs. Northwestern: Odds, predictions, props and best bets
Penn State made a big statement on defense last week, turning in its best defensive performance ever as a member of the Big 10. The Nittany Lions held Iowa to just 76 yards, completely suffocating anything the Hawkeyes tried. As a result, the Penn State defense ranks first in the nation after four weeks.
They allowed a mere five touchdowns and held their opponents to an average of 219.5 yards per game.
This week’s matchup against Northwestern might not be much of a challenge. The Wildcats did score 37 points last week on Minnesota, but their run game ranks dead last in the Big 10. Their total offense isn’t much better, ranking only ahead of Indiana, Rutgers and the aforementioned Iowa.
With the Wildcats also featuring the worst run defense in the Big 10, college football betting sites don’t expect this game to be much of a contest.
These odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook. With a $5 bet, PennLive customers can get up $200 in bonus bets, plus an additional $150 in no sweat bets for NFL wagers. You don’t need a promo code for this offer.
Low scores have been the norm in this Big 10 matchup, which has been played four times in the past decade. In three of those games, one team ended up with single digits on the scoreboard, and the total score never went above 44 points. Last year in University Park, Penn State won a 17-7 contest in the rain. This year, the teams should see ideal playing conditions.
Other than Delaware, which was overmatched within 20 minutes, Penn State’s shown a bad habit of letting teams hang around with them. Out of three games against FBS competition, Penn State hasn’t led by more than 10 at halftime.
Allowing Northwestern to stay in the game when they are the home team would make this game much harder than it needs to be for the Nittany Lions. Penn State needs to get running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen rolling early to attack the Wildcats weak run defense.
Northwestern’s turnover trends in 2023 are easy to follow. When quarterback Ben Bryant doesn’t throw an interception, the Wildcats are 2-0. When he throws one to the wrong team, they’re 0-2.
Bryant isn’t likely to throw for anywhere close to the 396 yards and four touchdowns he achieved last week against Minnesota. But the Wildcats bigger concern is that he doesn’t give Penn State’s offense a short field. The Nittany Lions are very opportunistic, as they picked off Illinois’ Luke Altmyer four times on September 16. If Bryant puts the Wildcats behind with poor decisions, Northwestern won’t be able to keep the game close.
Don’t wait around to get this number. Most other Pennsylvania sportsbooks have already shifted the line to -26.5, which means this line probably won’t last much longer. Penn State has shown itself a cut above most of the Big 10, and Northwestern’s had real problems with mid-level teams like Rutgers and Duke.
As long as the Nittany Lions can avoid a slow start, they should be able to cover.
Once again, with a $5 bet, PennLive customers can get up $200 in bonus bets, plus an additional $150 in no sweat bets for NFL wagers on DraftKings.
The tendency of these teams to play low-scoring games, combined with Penn State’s tenacity on defense, makes this a very appealing play. In its two defeats, Northwestern scored a combined 21 points, but 14 of those came in the final two minutes of the game, with the outcome well decided. Penn State should keep the Wildcats to single digits.
At FanDuel, new users can get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager on any sport. All you need to do is sign up and make your first bet to claim your bonus bets.
Think you know Penn State football? Play the PennLive.com Prop Bet Showdown for a chance to win prizes!
Sidelines Group provides PennLive with original sports betting, lottery and casino content including odds, analysis, predictions and reviews to educate bettors. Please bet responsibly.
If you have a gambling problem and are located in Pennsylvania, call 1-800-GAMBLER or contact the 24-hour helpline chat at https://www.pacouncil.com/chatline.
