PGA DFS Picks- Round 4 Showdown for 2023 Valero Texas Open
Tomorrow will make for some really interesting viewing, as neither Corey Conners or Patrick Rodgers have shown the ability to close out events with confidence. Danger lurks alongside many of the fairways and one or two swings lacking the necessary conviction could see a whole bunch of golfers get brought back into the tournament, with 14 golfers sitting within 3 strokes of 3rd place.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
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$10,000+
Matt Kuchar ended what was a phenomenal round 3 of golf ... with a double bogey 7 on the final hole. He is playing some really consistent golf and will be the pivot we go to in place of Corey Conners, who may come in the highest owned on the slate. Conners' last win was here in 2019, and has shown to be very nervy when in contention on a Sunday.
Rickie Fowler will most likely fall into single digit ownership because of his T43 starting position. He has been playing like one of the best golfers in the world lately, but with a lot of pressure to win this event to get into the Masters, he seemingly hasn't brought his best stuff. He sits 10 strokes back of first and seven back of third. If he has a ridiculous round, he could soar into the top 10 tomorrow.
$9,000+
I don't recall writing a R4 article where Hideki Matsuyama was actually close to the leading the event, yet he has two top 10 finishes on the season, which is actually rather disappointing by his lofty standards. He grades out as the only golfer who can score 50+ points tomorrow (minus finishing position) and we get him at $9,700. He won't be as low owned as we would like, but will 10%+ less owned that Conners and there is a alternate reality where he finishes ahead of the Canadian tomorrow. Hopefully we stumble upon that reality tomorrow.
Taylor Montgomery continues to wage war on short approach shots with water guarding the green, rinsing his 3rd shot on the 18th hole today ultimately making a double bogey. He still managed to shoot -3 and with his short game and field-best round 4 scoring, he will be roughly 15% owned with slate breaking potential. Nick Taylor has not really got out of 2nd gear since round 1. If he can get hot with the putter and produce a round like we saw at the WM Phoenix Open, he will be knocking on the top-5 by end of day.
$8,000+
Brendon Todd let me and a lot of others down today, as he butchered his weeklong potential with a 3 over 75 today. He has an impressive round 4 scoring history and grades out really well pre tournament. He will barely make it into the teens ownership wise and has one of the highest scoring projections in my model. We will forgive the steady plodder as long as he redeems himself tomorrow. Alex Noren sits T18 and could quite easily surge up the leaderboard with his impressive iron play and solid R4 scoring.
$7,000+
Brandon Wu will be barely owned and actually grades out really well despite finding himself in 54th after a disappointing 1 over par round today. Garrick Higgo has the 6th best R4 scoring average in the field and will also be 1% owned at $7,800 due to his T63 position. He is capable of recording the round of the day despite having played poorly in R3.
Eric Cole and Akshay Bhatia had two really disappointing rounds today, both shooting 3 over par. They both have solid R4 scoring potential and will be looking to make amends on their R3 performance. Lanto Griffin will be rostered again as he historically plays well in R4 too, and has some momentum heading into R4. Add Sepp Straka and Andrew Novak into the rotational low exposure portion of our player pool too, with both of them shooting -2 in R3, garnering ownership closer to 10% in R4.
$6,000+
Two golfers priced less than $7,000 that average above a stroke per round on Sundays: Cole Hammer and Kevin Streelman. They both have played below their expectations so far, but could finish off the week strong if history repeats itself. Emiliano Grillo, Jimmy Walker,Satoshi Kodaira and Luke Donald will provide some good value in the lower $6k range. Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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