Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Messi in Leagues Cup semifinal

The Sporting News

15 August 2023

Lionel Messi has lit the Leagues Cup on fire since arriving at Inter Miami, but he faces his toughest test yet against the Philadelphia Union in the semifinals of the new competition.

Having only played mid-table or bottom-tier clubs to this point, Messi and company will take on their first opponent of true pedigree. Philadelphia finished last season atop the Eastern Conference and only missed out on the Supporters' Shield to LAFC on goal differential, reaching the MLS Cup final where they would fall to LAFC on penalties.

Philadelphia now sit third in the East this year, again challenging for a top spot. They have dealt with injuries to key players of late, but continue to achieve results both in league play and in the cup competition.

Now, with a spot in the final on the line, can Messi not only add to his Leagues Cup-leading eight goals, but also down his first true giant? Or will Inter Miami finally get a dose of reality and be consigned to their outside push for an MLS playoff spot?

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Philadelphia vs Inter Miami match facts

Date: Tuesday, August 15
Kickoff Time: 7 p.m. ET / 12 a.m. BST (Wed, Aug. 16) / 9 a.m. AEST (Wed, Aug. 16)
Location: Subaru Park (Chester, Pennsylvania)
Last meeting: Philadelphia Union 4-1 Inter Miami (June 24, 2023 | MLS)

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami prediction, odds

Moneyline lean: Philadelphia Union (+185)
Score prediction: Philadelphia 2-1 Inter Miami

Nobody has been able to stop Lionel Messi's version of Inter Miami yet, but if there's anyone across the Major League Soccer landscape who can engineer a plan to do so, it's Jim Curtin. One of the most underrated coaches in the United States, Curtin has the tactical expertise and the players in the squad to keep Messi and his teammates at bay.

Inter Miami have made plenty of mistakes to this point, but few teams have punished them for it. Philadelphia have the ability to do just that, and they will give Messi and friends fewer chances of their own. This will be tight, because this iteration of Inter Miami is for real, but the Union will progress in deserving fashion.

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami best bet

Pick: Philadelphia Union over 1.5 goals
Odds: +105 (BetMGM)

Regardless of who progresses in this match, it's going to involve goals — but not necessarily for Inter Miami. Defensively, Inter Miami are much improved, as Jordi Alba and Kamal Miller have proven significant upgrades, but they still have frailties.

Charlotte FC struggled to punish Inter Miami for their mistakes, but Philadelphia are much better in the final third. Daniel Gazdag is healthy, and while the injury to Julian Carranza is worrying, Chris Donovan proved last time out that he has the moxie to deliver.

Philadelphia put up four goals on this Inter Miami side just two months ago, and expecting them to recreate just half that output is reasonable. If Inter Miami are to progress to the final, they'll have to do so in shootout fashion, just like against FC Dallas.

Philadelphia vs Inter Miami prop bet

Pick: Robert Taylor anytime goal scorer
Odds: +275 (BetMGM)

Nobody on Inter Miami has benefitted more from the arrival of Lionel Messi, Sergio Busquets, and Jordi Alba than winger Robert Taylor, who's been utterly brilliant on the left. While Messi is thought most likely to score, understandably so, his odds are putrid at -135.

Instead, back Taylor, who could be the biggest recipient of space should the Union shut down Messi like Charlotte FC did (or, at least, tried to). Against Charlotte, Taylor was exceptional, getting 58 touches, just nine shy of ball magnet Messi, scoring a goal and creating two chances for teammates. He'll be heavily involved here again for sure.

Philadelphia vs Inter Miami live stream, TV channel

The match from Subaru Park will kick off at 7 p.m. local time in Philadelphia in front of what is expected to be yet another sold-out crowd to watch Lionel Messi in action.

The match will be available around the world via MLS Season Pass on Apple TV.