Phillies-Padres prediction: Picks, odds on Tuesday, September 5

On Monday, the Phillies (76-61) delivered a gut punch to the Padres’ (65-74) playoff chances by picking up a 9-7 win. Now they’ll look to knock San Diego out of the postseason hunt on Tuesday when they send Michael Lorenzen (8-8, 3.73 ERA) to the mound against righty Pedro Avila (0-2, 2.67). First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET.

The Padres are -115 moneyline underdogs at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Phillies are -105 underdogs. The total is set at 9.

Phillies-Padres picks: Tuesday, September 5

Injury report

Phillies

N/A

Padres

Day-to-day: C Luis Campusano (groin)
Out: RP Yu Darvish (right elbow inflammation), 1B/DH Ji Man Choi (left ribcage strain), RP Steven Wilson (left hip inflammation), RP Joe Musgrove (right shoulder capsule inflammation), INF Jake Cronenworth (right wrist fracture)

Starting pitchers

Michael Lorenzen vs. Pedro Avila

Since throwing a no-hitter against the National on Aug. 9, Lorenzen’s been pretty ineffective on the mound, as he boasts a 7.80 ERA over the three starts since. He has a 5.47 ERA in 14 career games (26.1 innings) against the Padres.

Avila, who entered the season with 13.1 career innings under his belt, is getting some run as a swingman for the Padres amid injuries to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. He appeared twice in July in multi-inning relief appearances, and has since moved into the rotation, where he’s allowed 11 runs (six earned) in 7.1 innings over his last two appearances.

Over/Under pick

I like this over pick. Both Lorenzen and Avila have been struggling as of late, and these two teams combined to hit this over in the series opener. I’m expecting a lot of offense in San Diego tonight.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

The Phillies do their part to knock the Padres out of the postseason picture. San Diego enters play tonight with a 0.9% chance to make the playoffs per Fangraphs -- I think it’ll be even smaller at this time tomorrow.