Padres-Blue Jays prediction: Picks, odds on Wednesday, July 19

While the San Diego Padres have been the most disappointing team in baseball for most of the season, they put together a complete win on Tuesday against the Toronto Blue Jays. Now, they’ll look to make it two in a row against Toronto when they send Yu Darvish (6-6, 4.65 ERA) to the mound in tonight’s game. He’ll go against Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.41 ERA). First pitch is set for 7:07 p.m. ET.

The Blue Jays are -120 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Padres are +100 underdogs. The total is set at 9.

Padres-Blue Jays picks: Wednesday, July 19

Injury report

Padres

Out: SP Michael Wacha (right shoulder inflammation), RP Adrian Morejon (right knee inflammation), OF Preston Tucker (right foot plantar fasciitis)

Blue Jays

Out: RP Adam Cimber (right shoulder impingement), SP Hyun Jin Ryu (Tommy John surgery), RP Chad Green (Tommy John surgery)

Starting pitchers

Yu Darvish vs. Jose Berrios

Darvish hasn’t looked like his ace self this season, as he’s on pace for one of the highest ERAs in his career. While he’s coming off a solid six inning start against the Phillies where he allowed one run in six innings, he’s only had back-to-back quality starts once this season. The numbers get a little better once you look under the hood, however, as he ranks in the 70th percentile or better in expected slugging and barrel rate. He has a 2.67 ERA in 33 2/3 career innings at Rogers Centre.

Berrios has swung the other way, as the longtime Minnesota Twin is en route to his best full season in two years. After struggling with contact last season (he led the AL with 199 hits allowed), he’s brought his WHIP down to 1.156, which is nearly 0.3 points lower than last year. After struggling at the end of June, he’s allowed one run over 13 1/3 innings in June.

Over/Under pick

Tuesday’s game barely clipped the over thanks to some late, garbage-time offense. I think tonight’s game is close throughout, which should lead to some better pitching.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

The Padres pull off the upset. While Berrios is having the better year, Darvish has the better track record, and has pitched well in Toronto throughout his career. The Padres’ offense had one of its best games of the year last night, and that should carry over to tonight.