Phillies vs. Braves Picks, Predictions & Odds

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09 October 2023

Phillies vs. Braves Picks, Predictions & Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies now own home-field advantage in their NL divisional series against the Atlanta Braves and look to take a commanding 2-0 series lead as we make our best Phillies vs. Braves picks for Game 2 based on the best MLB odds.

The Philadelphia Phillies beat the Atlanta Braves 3-0 in Game 1 of the NLDS, marking the first time the Braves were shut out at home since Aug. 28, 2021. The Phillies have won 14 of 15 Game 1s since 2008 and seven straight (6-0 under manager Rob Thomson). Atlanta has never beaten Philadelphia in a postseason series and would take a massive step toward that by evening the series Monday.

The Braves have unsurprisingly given up pole position in the World Series odds and Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper is the new consensus favorite by the World Series MVP odds after just one game this round.

Here is our best Phillies vs. Braves pick (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Phillies vs. Braves pick

Under 8 (-105 via FanDuel, BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Philadelphia’s Game 1 shutout of Atlanta was no small feat, considering the Braves had the highest team slugging percentage in baseball history and tied for the most home runs in a season. While it took seven Phillies pitchers to piece together the 27 outs, we expect righty Zack Wheeler to go deep into Monday's game and give the bullpen some more rest following Sunday's off day.

Wheeler has been unlucky in amassing a 2-3 record in his seven postseason starts, as he has pitched to a 2.55 ERA and minuscule 0.732 WHIP in that span. Though Wheeler is coming off a regular-season campaign in which he produced his highest FIP (3.15) since 2020, he still ranks in the 87th percentile or better in barrels, xERA, average exit velocity, and walk rate. And he is the perfect foil to the power-hitting Braves lineup, having not allowed a home run in his last 23 2/3 innings.

Braves southpaw Max Fried was dominant down the stretch in the regular season, winning all five decisions of his seven starts while pitching to a 2.59 ERA. Fried should neutralize two of Philadelphia’s biggest bats, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, as left-handed hitters have a .205 batting average against him this year. More importantly, Fried induces ground balls at an astronomical rate against lefties, with a 9.00 GO/AO ratio in that split.

We are making the Under a three-star play, as Fried’s .258 xwOBA and 2.75 xERA were the best of his career, and his .311 xSLG and .216 xBA were his best in a full season (excluding 2020).

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Phillies vs. Braves best odds

FanDuel, BetMGM, bet365 (-105)

Under backers have their choice of three of our best sports betting apps that charge as little as -105 juice. With most of the best sportsbooks juiced to the Over, bettors may want to wait until closer to the first pitch to see if the line will move to 8.5. If it did, we would make that a more confident four-star play, but we are happy to back the Under of 8 at a reduced price.

Phillies vs. Braves odds

The total has remained at 8 runs at all of our best sports betting sites since opening on Saturday night. There has been some slight fluctuation in the price, with DraftKings as high as +100 to back the Over on Saturday, but it has since risen to -112. There has been solid two-way betting action on the total thus far, as 53% of the wagers have been placed on the Over.

BetMGM and bet365 have the highest moneyline odds for Atlanta (-155), while DraftKings and BetRivers are on the low end at -162. Caesars has seen the biggest movement to this point, dropping from Braves -154 to -161. Early moneyline wagers are 2/1 (69/31) in favor of Atlanta.